Liga Portugal

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

Rio AveHome

P: 5Pts: 3GD: -9

Form

L0-4@ Santa Clara

W2-0@ Estoril

L0-4v Sporting

L0-1@ Gil Vicente

Model strength

Attack12th

Defence18th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 3.1xGF: 2.5xGA: 7.9Luck: -0.1

EstrelaAway

P: 4Pts: 6GD: +1

Form

W3-2@ Nacional

D2-2v Famalicão

D2-2v Sporting

Model strength

Attack17th

Defence14th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 4.6xGF: 5.4xGA: 7.2Luck: +1.4

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Rio Ave

Unavailable· 19% of squad value

• Cezary MisztaGoalkeeperBack problems5 M€
• Brandon AguileraCentral MidfieldCruciate ligament tear1.5 M€

Key players (SAR)

• Jalen BlesaForward0.31

Estrela

Unavailable

No absences on record.

Key players (SAR)

• Leandro AntonettiForward0.19
• Abraham MarcusForward0.16
• Ianis StoicaForward0.11

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)