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Liga Portugal
Matchday 2 · postponed

Sp. Braga – Gil Vicente

What the model expects from this match, and what each result changes for both clubs.

Forecast of 25 Sept (after matchday 7) · next update after matchday 8
Sp. Braga
Gil Vicente
Monday 19 October at 20:15
Sp. Braga win
61%
at home
Draw
23%
Gil Vicente win
16%
away
Most likely outcome: Sp. Braga (61%)

Beat the Model and the match record use the probabilities frozen on 10 August, when matchday 2 opened: Sp. Braga 59%, draw 23%, Gil Vicente 18%.

What changes for Sp. Braga?

Probability of finishing in the top 3, now and under each of the three possible results, on the same scale.

Now
8.4%
If Sp. Braga win
9.9%, up 1.6 percentage points from now
If they draw
6.7%, down 1.7 percentage points from now
If Sp. Braga lose
5.1%, down 3.3 percentage points from now

The vertical line marks the current probability (now); the bars show each result, on the same scale. This is not the chance the match ends that way — see the match-probabilities section above. How it is computed

For comparison: Gil Vicente's top 3 chance is currently <0.1%.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

Sp. BragaHome
P: 6Pts: 11GD: +2
Form
D0–0Santa Clara (A, away)
W1–0Estoril (H, at home)
L1–2Estrela (A, away)
W2–1Alverca (A, away)
W1–0Vitória (H, at home)
Model strength
Attack4th
Defence4th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 10.3xGF: 7.2xGA: 4.0Pts − xPts: +0.7
Gil VicenteAway
P: 6Pts: 8GD: 0
Form
D1–1Marítimo (H, at home)
L1–3Benfica (A, away)
L0–1Ac. Viseu (H, at home)
D0–0Famalicão (A, away)
W2–0Casa Pia (H, at home)
Model strength
Attack10th
Defence8th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 10.1xGF: 7.8xGA: 5.5Pts − xPts: −2.1
Team page: Sp. BragaTeam page: Gil Vicente

Squads

Known absentees and each side's players on the published finishing list of 40 (SAR, skill above replacement). Neither absences nor individual players feed this forecast: the model uses goals, shots on target and each squad's value. Absences recorded as of 5 October 2026.

Sp. Braga
Unavailable· 9% of squad value
  • Bright Arrey-MbiCentre-Backunknown injury9 M€
  • Sikou NiakatéCentre-BackAchilles tendon rupture5 M€
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 16 May 2026 (end of the 2025-26 season).

  • Pau VíctorForward0.20
  • Fran NavarroForward0.19
  • Ricardo HortaMidfielder0.14
  • Gabriel SilvaForward0.11
Gil Vicente
Unavailable· 5% of squad value
  • Mohamed BambaDefensive Midfieldunknown injury1.5 M€
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 16 May 2026 (end of the 2025-26 season).

  • Héctor HernándezForward0.24
  • Sergio BermejoForward0.09
  • MuriloMidfielder0.09

SAR: goals per 90 minutes above a replacement-level player, with extreme values capped.

Other fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Fri 9 Oct · 18:45Moreirense – Gil VicenteMoreirense 32% · draw 30% · Gil Vicente 38%
  2. Fri 9 Oct · 20:15Sp. Braga – SportingSp. Braga 24% · draw 24% · Sporting 52%
  3. Sat 10 Oct · 15:30Casa Pia – Santa ClaraCasa Pia 28% · draw 30% · Santa Clara 41%
  4. Sat 10 Oct · 18:00Marítimo – PortoMarítimo 7.1% · draw 16% · Porto 77%
  5. Sat 10 Oct · 20:30Ac. Viseu – EstorilAc. Viseu 30% · draw 27% · Estoril 43%
  6. Sun 11 Oct · 15:30Rio Ave – NacionalRio Ave 44% · draw 26% · Nacional 30%
  7. Sun 11 Oct · 18:00Benfica – VitóriaBenfica 73% · draw 17% · Vitória 10%
  8. Sun 11 Oct · 20:30Arouca – EstrelaArouca 47% · draw 27% · Estrela 26%
  9. Mon 12 Oct · 20:15Famalicão – AlvercaFamalicão 46% · draw 28% · Alverca 27%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · forecast of 25 September 2026