Nacional – Sp. Braga

Probability of relegation, now and under each of the three possible results, on the same scale.

The vertical line marks the current probability (now); the bars show each result, on the same scale. This is not the chance the match ends that way — see the match-probabilities section above. How it is computed

For comparison: Sp. Braga's relegation chance is currently 0%.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

NacionalHome

P: 7Pts: 4GD: −8

Form

L0–4Famalicão (H, at home)

L1–3Alverca (H, at home)

L0–2Sporting (A, away)

L2–3Estrela (H, at home)

L0–1Vitória (A, away)

Model strength

Attack13th

Defence16th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 7.5xGF: 8.0xGA: 12.9Pts − xPts: −3.5

Sp. BragaAway

P: 7Pts: 11GD: 0

Form

L1–3Sporting (H, at home)

D0–0Santa Clara (A, away)

W1–0Estoril (H, at home)

L1–2Estrela (A, away)

W2–1Alverca (A, away)

Model strength

Attack4th

Defence4th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 12.1xGF: 8.7xGA: 4.9Pts − xPts: −1.1

Squads

Known absentees and each side's players on the published finishing list of 40 (SAR, skill above replacement). Neither absences nor individual players feed this forecast: the model uses goals, shots on target and each squad's value. Absences recorded as of 11 October 2026.

Nacional

Unavailable· 17% of squad value

• Léo SantosCentre-BackTorn lateral knee ligament1.5 M€
• UlissesCentre-BackBroken ankle1 M€
• Filipe SoaresAttacking MidfieldMuscle injury500 k€

Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season).

No player from this club is among the 40 on the published finishing list. See the list

Sp. Braga

Unavailable· 9% of squad value

• Bright Arrey-MbiCentre-Backunknown injury9 M€
• Sikou NiakatéCentre-BackAchilles tendon rupture5 M€

Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season).

• Pau VíctorForward0.21
• Fran NavarroForward0.19
• Ricardo HortaMidfielder0.13
• Gabriel SilvaForward0.10

SAR: goals per 90 minutes above a replacement-level player, with extreme values capped.