The elections are over. What did the forecasts say?
An archive lets you revisit the information available at the time. It is not a page of official results. There is no election under way.
Start here
Choose a forecast
Open the forecast you want to place in time. It contains the date, election round and estimates published then.
Presidential 2026
1st round · 18 January 2026 · forecast of 16 January 2026
2nd round · 8 February 2026 · forecast of 6 February 2026
A winner and runoff question: who would win, and whether a runoff would be needed.
Official results (SGMAI):
Parliamentary 2025
Single round · 18 May 2025 · forecast of 16 May 2025
A seats and majority question: which party would win most seats and whether a bloc would reach a majority. It is a different question from a winner.
Official results (SGMAI):
Before drawing conclusions
01 · Place the forecast
Which date?
Start with the forecast date and election round. Available information changes throughout the campaign.
02 · Read the question
Votes or winning probability?
A vote estimate and a winning probability answer different questions. Read the title and unit before comparing.
03 · Assess carefully
Is naming the winner enough?
No. The distance to the result and the credible intervals matter too. A single election does not establish that probabilities are well calibrated.
We have not published an evaluation of these forecasts against the official results, and none is scheduled, so this page does not score the model. The only published evaluation on the site is the football model’s.