Archive · 2025

Parliamentary election 2025: what the forecast said

A forecast preserved with the information available at the time. These are not election results.

Forecast of 16 May 2025 · election on 18 May 2025Official results (SGMAI)

over99%

AD most seats

under1%

PS most seats

under1%

AD + IL majority

under1%

PS + L + CDU + BE majority

Neither bloc with a majority: over 99% of the simulations. The AD + CH sum, as arithmetic only, reached 116 seats in over 99% of the simulations (median: 138).

Arithmetic grouping of projected seats; not a prediction that these parties will form a government together.

Trend estimated from the polls

Estimated vote share, by party

The model’s estimate for each party on the dates of the polls it read in the two years before the election and on election day (84 dates), with its 94% credible interval (HDI). The polls themselves are not part of this archive; the table has every party’s estimate and band.

Every party, each named at the end of its line. The light band (94%) on the three largest only: the others' would overlap near the floor.

View as table, latest first

Vote share (%) · estimate and 94% HDI band, every party
Date	AD	PS	CH	IL	L	CDU	BE	PAN
18 May 2025	34.2% (32.2%–36.3%)	27.7% (25.9%–29.6%)	20.5% (18.3%–22.6%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.5%)	4.7% (3.8%–5.5%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.8%)	2.7% (2.2%–3.1%)	1.3% (1.1%–1.7%)
15 May 2025	34.2% (32.2%–36.1%)	27.8% (26.0%–29.6%)	20.6% (18.5%–22.7%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.5%)	4.6% (3.8%–5.4%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.8%)	2.7% (2.3%–3.2%)	1.4% (1.1%–1.7%)
13 May 2025	34.1% (32.2%–36.1%)	27.9% (26.1%–29.6%)	20.6% (18.5%–22.6%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.5%)	4.5% (3.8%–5.3%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.8%)	2.7% (2.3%–3.2%)	1.4% (1.1%–1.7%)
12 May 2025	34.1% (32.2%–36.0%)	27.9% (26.2%–29.7%)	20.6% (18.5%–22.6%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.5%)	4.5% (3.8%–5.3%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	2.7% (2.3%–3.2%)	1.4% (1.1%–1.7%)
9 May 2025	34.0% (32.2%–35.9%)	28.0% (26.3%–29.7%)	20.6% (18.5%–22.6%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.4%)	4.4% (3.7%–5.2%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	2.8% (2.4%–3.2%)	1.4% (1.1%–1.7%)
6 May 2025	33.9% (32.1%–35.7%)	28.1% (26.5%–29.7%)	20.6% (18.6%–22.6%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.4%)	4.4% (3.7%–5.1%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	2.8% (2.4%–3.2%)	1.4% (1.1%–1.7%)
5 May 2025	33.9% (32.1%–35.7%)	28.1% (26.5%–29.8%)	20.6% (18.6%–22.6%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.4%)	4.4% (3.7%–5.1%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	2.8% (2.4%–3.2%)	1.4% (1.1%–1.7%)
1 May 2025	33.8% (32.1%–35.6%)	28.3% (26.7%–29.9%)	20.7% (18.6%–22.6%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.3%)	4.3% (3.6%–4.9%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	2.8% (2.5%–3.3%)	1.4% (1.1%–1.7%)
24 Apr 2025	33.7% (32.0%–35.3%)	28.5% (26.9%–29.9%)	20.7% (18.7%–22.6%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	4.1% (3.5%–4.8%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	2.9% (2.6%–3.3%)	1.5% (1.2%–1.7%)
22 Apr 2025	33.6% (32.0%–35.3%)	28.5% (27.0%–30.0%)	20.7% (18.8%–22.6%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	4.1% (3.5%–4.7%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	2.9% (2.6%–3.3%)	1.5% (1.2%–1.7%)
21 Apr 2025	33.6% (31.9%–35.2%)	28.5% (27.0%–30.0%)	20.7% (18.8%–22.6%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.3%)	4.1% (3.5%–4.7%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	2.9% (2.6%–3.3%)	1.5% (1.2%–1.7%)
14 Apr 2025	33.4% (31.8%–35.0%)	28.7% (27.3%–30.2%)	20.7% (18.9%–22.6%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	4.0% (3.4%–4.6%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.6%)	3.0% (2.7%–3.4%)	1.5% (1.2%–1.8%)
9 Apr 2025	33.3% (31.7%–35.0%)	28.9% (27.4%–30.3%)	20.7% (18.8%–22.6%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	3.9% (3.3%–4.4%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.6%)	3.1% (2.7%–3.5%)	1.5% (1.2%–1.8%)
8 Apr 2025	33.3% (31.6%–34.8%)	28.9% (27.4%–30.3%)	20.7% (18.8%–22.6%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	3.9% (3.3%–4.4%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.6%)	3.1% (2.7%–3.5%)	1.5% (1.3%–1.8%)
3 Apr 2025	33.2% (31.6%–34.8%)	29.0% (27.5%–30.5%)	20.7% (18.7%–22.5%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	3.8% (3.2%–4.4%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.6%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.5%)	1.6% (1.3%–1.8%)
29 Mar 2025	33.0% (31.4%–34.6%)	29.1% (27.7%–30.6%)	20.7% (18.8%–22.6%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	3.7% (3.2%–4.3%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.6%)	3.2% (2.9%–3.6%)	1.6% (1.3%–1.9%)
26 Mar 2025	33.0% (31.3%–34.6%)	29.2% (27.7%–30.7%)	20.6% (18.7%–22.5%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.3%)	3.7% (3.1%–4.3%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.6%)	3.3% (2.9%–3.6%)	1.6% (1.3%–1.9%)
24 Mar 2025	32.9% (31.3%–34.6%)	29.2% (27.8%–30.8%)	20.6% (18.7%–22.5%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	3.7% (3.1%–4.2%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	3.3% (2.9%–3.7%)	1.6% (1.3%–1.9%)
21 Mar 2025	32.9% (31.2%–34.5%)	29.3% (27.8%–30.9%)	20.6% (18.7%–22.5%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	3.6% (3.0%–4.2%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	3.3% (2.9%–3.7%)	1.6% (1.3%–1.9%)
17 Mar 2025	32.8% (31.2%–34.5%)	29.4% (27.8%–30.9%)	20.6% (18.6%–22.5%)	5.5% (4.7%–6.2%)	3.6% (3.0%–4.2%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.6%)	3.4% (3.0%–3.8%)	1.6% (1.4%–1.9%)
13 Mar 2025	32.7% (31.0%–34.4%)	29.5% (27.9%–31.0%)	20.5% (18.5%–22.4%)	5.5% (4.7%–6.2%)	3.6% (3.0%–4.1%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.6%)	3.4% (3.0%–3.8%)	1.7% (1.4%–2.0%)
12 Mar 2025	32.7% (31.0%–34.4%)	29.5% (27.9%–31.0%)	20.5% (18.5%–22.4%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.3%)	3.5% (2.9%–4.1%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	3.4% (3.1%–3.9%)	1.7% (1.4%–2.0%)
10 Mar 2025	32.7% (31.0%–34.4%)	29.5% (27.9%–31.1%)	20.5% (18.5%–22.4%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.3%)	3.5% (2.9%–4.1%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	3.5% (3.1%–3.9%)	1.7% (1.4%–2.0%)
8 Mar 2025	32.6% (30.9%–34.3%)	29.5% (28.0%–31.1%)	20.5% (18.5%–22.4%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.3%)	3.5% (2.9%–4.1%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	3.5% (3.1%–3.9%)	1.7% (1.4%–2.0%)
6 Mar 2025	32.6% (30.9%–34.3%)	29.6% (28.0%–31.2%)	20.5% (18.5%–22.4%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.3%)	3.5% (2.9%–4.1%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	3.5% (3.1%–3.9%)	1.7% (1.4%–2.0%)
27 Feb 2025	32.5% (30.8%–34.2%)	29.7% (28.1%–31.3%)	20.4% (18.4%–22.3%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.3%)	3.4% (2.9%–4.0%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	3.6% (3.2%–4.1%)	1.7% (1.4%–2.0%)
28 Jan 2025	32.0% (30.3%–33.9%)	30.1% (28.3%–31.8%)	19.9% (17.9%–22.0%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.5%)	3.3% (2.7%–4.0%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	4.0% (3.5%–4.5%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.2%)
26 Jan 2025	32.0% (30.3%–33.9%)	30.1% (28.4%–31.9%)	19.9% (17.9%–22.0%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.5%)	3.3% (2.7%–4.0%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	4.0% (3.5%–4.6%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.2%)
21 Jan 2025	32.0% (30.2%–33.8%)	30.2% (28.4%–31.9%)	19.8% (17.8%–21.9%)	5.6% (4.8%–6.5%)	3.3% (2.7%–4.0%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	4.1% (3.5%–4.6%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.2%)
20 Jan 2025	32.0% (30.2%–33.8%)	30.2% (28.4%–31.9%)	19.8% (17.8%–21.9%)	5.7% (4.8%–6.5%)	3.3% (2.7%–4.0%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	4.1% (3.5%–4.7%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.2%)
5 Jan 2025	31.8% (30.1%–33.8%)	30.2% (28.4%–32.0%)	19.5% (17.5%–21.6%)	5.7% (4.8%–6.5%)	3.3% (2.7%–4.0%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	4.3% (3.7%–4.9%)	1.9% (1.5%–2.3%)
27 Nov 2024	31.7% (29.8%–33.6%)	30.3% (28.4%–32.1%)	18.9% (16.9%–21.0%)	5.8% (5.0%–6.7%)	3.5% (2.8%–4.2%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.8%)	4.6% (3.9%–5.3%)	1.9% (1.5%–2.4%)
22 Nov 2024	31.7% (29.9%–33.7%)	30.3% (28.4%–32.1%)	18.9% (16.9%–20.9%)	5.8% (5.0%–6.7%)	3.5% (2.9%–4.3%)	3.2% (2.6%–3.8%)	4.6% (4.0%–5.3%)	1.9% (1.5%–2.4%)
19 Nov 2024	31.8% (29.9%–33.8%)	30.3% (28.4%–32.1%)	18.8% (16.8%–20.9%)	5.8% (5.0%–6.7%)	3.6% (2.9%–4.3%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.8%)	4.6% (4.0%–5.3%)	1.9% (1.5%–2.4%)
23 Oct 2024	31.8% (29.8%–33.8%)	30.1% (28.3%–32.0%)	18.6% (16.6%–20.6%)	5.8% (5.0%–6.7%)	3.8% (3.0%–4.5%)	3.2% (2.6%–3.8%)	4.7% (4.0%–5.4%)	1.9% (1.5%–2.4%)
10 Oct 2024	31.9% (29.9%–33.8%)	30.0% (28.1%–31.9%)	18.5% (16.5%–20.5%)	5.8% (4.9%–6.7%)	3.8% (3.1%–4.6%)	3.2% (2.6%–3.8%)	4.7% (4.1%–5.5%)	1.9% (1.5%–2.3%)
5 Oct 2024	31.9% (29.8%–33.8%)	30.0% (28.1%–31.9%)	18.5% (16.5%–20.5%)	5.8% (4.9%–6.7%)	3.9% (3.1%–4.7%)	3.3% (2.6%–3.8%)	4.8% (4.1%–5.5%)	1.9% (1.5%–2.3%)
4 Sept 2024	32.1% (30.0%–34.1%)	29.8% (27.9%–31.8%)	18.5% (16.5%–20.5%)	5.7% (4.8%–6.6%)	4.1% (3.3%–4.9%)	3.3% (2.7%–3.9%)	4.7% (4.1%–5.5%)	1.9% (1.5%–2.3%)
26 Jul 2024	32.2% (30.3%–34.2%)	29.6% (27.9%–31.5%)	18.9% (16.9%–20.8%)	5.4% (4.6%–6.2%)	4.2% (3.4%–4.9%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.8%)	4.7% (4.0%–5.3%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.2%)
13 Jul 2024	32.2% (30.3%–34.2%)	29.6% (27.8%–31.4%)	19.0% (17.2%–21.1%)	5.3% (4.5%–6.1%)	4.1% (3.5%–4.9%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.8%)	4.7% (4.1%–5.3%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.2%)
8 Jul 2024	32.2% (30.3%–34.1%)	29.6% (27.9%–31.4%)	19.1% (17.3%–21.1%)	5.3% (4.5%–6.0%)	4.1% (3.4%–4.8%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.8%)	4.7% (4.0%–5.3%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.2%)
4 Jun 2024	32.1% (30.4%–33.8%)	29.6% (28.0%–31.2%)	19.6% (17.8%–21.4%)	5.0% (4.4%–5.7%)	3.9% (3.4%–4.5%)	3.2% (2.7%–3.7%)	4.7% (4.1%–5.2%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.1%)
20 May 2024	32.1% (30.4%–33.6%)	29.7% (28.1%–31.1%)	19.8% (18.1%–21.6%)	4.9% (4.3%–5.6%)	3.8% (3.3%–4.3%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	4.7% (4.2%–5.2%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.1%)
18 May 2024	32.0% (30.5%–33.7%)	29.7% (28.2%–31.2%)	19.9% (18.2%–21.6%)	4.9% (4.3%–5.5%)	3.8% (3.3%–4.3%)	3.2% (2.8%–3.7%)	4.7% (4.2%–5.2%)	1.8% (1.5%–2.1%)
23 Apr 2024	31.9% (30.4%–33.3%)	29.8% (28.4%–31.2%)	20.1% (18.4%–21.7%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.4%)	3.5% (3.1%–3.9%)	3.3% (2.8%–3.7%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.2%)	1.8% (1.6%–2.1%)
10 Mar 2024	31.5% (30.1%–32.7%)	30.2% (28.8%–31.3%)	20.3% (18.6%–21.8%)	4.7% (4.2%–5.2%)	3.0% (2.7%–3.3%)	3.3% (2.9%–3.7%)	5.1% (4.7%–5.5%)	2.0% (1.7%–2.2%)
7 Mar 2024	31.4% (30.1%–32.7%)	30.2% (28.8%–31.4%)	20.3% (18.6%–21.8%)	4.7% (4.2%–5.2%)	3.0% (2.7%–3.3%)	3.3% (2.9%–3.7%)	5.1% (4.7%–5.5%)	2.0% (1.7%–2.2%)
6 Mar 2024	31.4% (30.1%–32.7%)	30.2% (28.8%–31.3%)	20.3% (18.6%–21.8%)	4.7% (4.2%–5.2%)	3.0% (2.7%–3.3%)	3.3% (2.9%–3.7%)	5.1% (4.7%–5.5%)	2.0% (1.7%–2.2%)
5 Mar 2024	31.4% (30.1%–32.7%)	30.2% (28.9%–31.4%)	20.3% (18.6%–21.7%)	4.7% (4.2%–5.2%)	3.0% (2.7%–3.3%)	3.3% (2.9%–3.7%)	5.1% (4.7%–5.5%)	2.0% (1.7%–2.2%)
4 Mar 2024	31.4% (30.0%–32.7%)	30.2% (28.8%–31.4%)	20.3% (18.6%–21.7%)	4.8% (4.2%–5.2%)	3.0% (2.7%–3.3%)	3.3% (2.9%–3.7%)	5.1% (4.8%–5.5%)	2.0% (1.7%–2.2%)
27 Feb 2024	31.4% (30.0%–32.6%)	30.3% (29.0%–31.5%)	20.2% (18.7%–21.8%)	4.8% (4.2%–5.2%)	2.9% (2.6%–3.2%)	3.3% (3.0%–3.7%)	5.2% (4.8%–5.6%)	2.0% (1.8%–2.2%)
26 Feb 2024	31.3% (30.0%–32.6%)	30.3% (29.0%–31.5%)	20.2% (18.7%–21.8%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.3%)	2.9% (2.6%–3.2%)	3.3% (3.0%–3.7%)	5.2% (4.8%–5.6%)	2.0% (1.8%–2.2%)
25 Feb 2024	31.3% (30.0%–32.6%)	30.3% (29.0%–31.5%)	20.2% (18.7%–21.8%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.3%)	2.9% (2.6%–3.2%)	3.3% (3.0%–3.7%)	5.2% (4.8%–5.6%)	2.0% (1.8%–2.2%)
21 Feb 2024	31.3% (30.0%–32.6%)	30.3% (29.0%–31.5%)	20.2% (18.6%–21.7%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.3%)	2.9% (2.6%–3.2%)	3.3% (3.0%–3.7%)	5.3% (4.9%–5.7%)	2.0% (1.8%–2.2%)
20 Feb 2024	31.3% (30.0%–32.6%)	30.3% (29.0%–31.5%)	20.2% (18.6%–21.8%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.3%)	2.9% (2.6%–3.2%)	3.3% (3.0%–3.7%)	5.3% (4.9%–5.7%)	2.0% (1.8%–2.2%)
13 Feb 2024	31.2% (29.9%–32.5%)	30.4% (29.0%–31.6%)	20.1% (18.5%–21.7%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.3%)	2.8% (2.5%–3.1%)	3.3% (3.0%–3.7%)	5.4% (4.9%–5.8%)	2.0% (1.8%–2.3%)
12 Feb 2024	31.2% (29.9%–32.5%)	30.4% (29.0%–31.6%)	20.1% (18.5%–21.7%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.3%)	2.8% (2.5%–3.1%)	3.4% (3.0%–3.7%)	5.4% (5.0%–5.8%)	2.0% (1.8%–2.3%)
10 Feb 2024	31.2% (29.8%–32.5%)	30.4% (29.1%–31.6%)	20.1% (18.5%–21.7%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.3%)	2.8% (2.5%–3.1%)	3.4% (3.0%–3.7%)	5.4% (5.0%–5.8%)	2.0% (1.8%–2.3%)
1 Feb 2024	31.2% (29.8%–32.5%)	30.5% (29.1%–31.7%)	19.9% (18.4%–21.6%)	4.8% (4.3%–5.4%)	2.7% (2.4%–3.0%)	3.4% (3.0%–3.8%)	5.5% (5.1%–5.9%)	2.1% (1.8%–2.3%)
25 Jan 2024	31.1% (29.7%–32.4%)	30.5% (29.2%–31.8%)	19.8% (18.2%–21.4%)	4.9% (4.3%–5.4%)	2.7% (2.3%–3.0%)	3.4% (3.0%–3.8%)	5.6% (5.2%–6.0%)	2.1% (1.8%–2.4%)
20 Jan 2024	31.1% (29.7%–32.4%)	30.5% (29.2%–31.9%)	19.7% (18.1%–21.3%)	4.9% (4.4%–5.5%)	2.6% (2.3%–2.9%)	3.4% (3.0%–3.8%)	5.7% (5.2%–6.1%)	2.1% (1.8%–2.4%)
17 Jan 2024	31.1% (29.6%–32.4%)	30.5% (29.2%–31.9%)	19.7% (18.0%–21.3%)	4.9% (4.4%–5.5%)	2.6% (2.3%–2.9%)	3.4% (3.0%–3.8%)	5.7% (5.3%–6.2%)	2.1% (1.8%–2.4%)
23 Dec 2023	31.0% (29.5%–32.4%)	30.7% (29.3%–32.1%)	19.1% (17.4%–20.8%)	5.1% (4.5%–5.7%)	2.5% (2.1%–2.8%)	3.5% (3.0%–3.9%)	6.1% (5.6%–6.6%)	2.2% (1.9%–2.5%)
21 Dec 2023	31.0% (29.5%–32.4%)	30.7% (29.3%–32.1%)	19.0% (17.4%–20.8%)	5.1% (4.5%–5.7%)	2.4% (2.1%–2.8%)	3.5% (3.0%–3.9%)	6.1% (5.6%–6.7%)	2.2% (1.9%–2.5%)
20 Dec 2023	31.0% (29.5%–32.4%)	30.7% (29.2%–32.1%)	19.0% (17.4%–20.8%)	5.1% (4.5%–5.8%)	2.4% (2.1%–2.8%)	3.5% (3.0%–3.9%)	6.1% (5.6%–6.7%)	2.2% (1.9%–2.5%)
6 Dec 2023	30.9% (29.4%–32.4%)	30.7% (29.2%–32.1%)	18.6% (16.8%–20.3%)	5.2% (4.6%–5.9%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.8%)	3.5% (3.1%–4.0%)	6.3% (5.8%–7.0%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.6%)
27 Nov 2023	31.0% (29.4%–32.5%)	30.7% (29.2%–32.2%)	18.4% (16.6%–20.1%)	5.3% (4.6%–6.0%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.8%)	3.6% (3.1%–4.1%)	6.5% (5.9%–7.1%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.6%)
24 Nov 2023	31.0% (29.3%–32.5%)	30.7% (29.2%–32.2%)	18.3% (16.5%–20.1%)	5.3% (4.7%–6.1%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.8%)	3.6% (3.1%–4.1%)	6.5% (5.9%–7.2%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.7%)
23 Nov 2023	31.0% (29.4%–32.5%)	30.7% (29.1%–32.2%)	18.2% (16.6%–20.1%)	5.4% (4.7%–6.1%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.8%)	3.6% (3.1%–4.1%)	6.5% (5.9%–7.2%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.7%)
17 Nov 2023	31.0% (29.4%–32.5%)	30.7% (29.1%–32.2%)	18.1% (16.4%–19.9%)	5.4% (4.7%–6.1%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.7%)	3.6% (3.1%–4.1%)	6.6% (6.0%–7.3%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.7%)
13 Nov 2023	31.0% (29.4%–32.6%)	30.7% (29.1%–32.2%)	17.9% (16.2%–19.8%)	5.4% (4.7%–6.2%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.8%)	3.6% (3.1%–4.1%)	6.7% (6.0%–7.3%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.7%)
8 Nov 2023	31.0% (29.4%–32.6%)	30.7% (29.1%–32.2%)	17.8% (16.1%–19.6%)	5.5% (4.8%–6.2%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.7%)	3.6% (3.1%–4.2%)	6.8% (6.1%–7.4%)	2.3% (1.9%–2.7%)
24 Oct 2023	31.1% (29.4%–32.7%)	30.6% (29.0%–32.2%)	17.3% (15.6%–19.2%)	5.6% (4.9%–6.4%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.7%)	3.7% (3.2%–4.2%)	7.0% (6.2%–7.7%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.8%)
23 Oct 2023	31.1% (29.4%–32.7%)	30.6% (29.0%–32.2%)	17.3% (15.6%–19.2%)	5.6% (4.9%–6.4%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.7%)	3.7% (3.2%–4.2%)	7.0% (6.2%–7.7%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.8%)
5 Oct 2023	31.2% (29.5%–32.9%)	30.5% (28.9%–32.1%)	16.7% (14.9%–18.6%)	5.8% (5.0%–6.6%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.8%)	3.8% (3.2%–4.3%)	7.2% (6.5%–8.0%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.9%)
25 Sept 2023	31.3% (29.6%–33.0%)	30.5% (28.8%–32.1%)	16.5% (14.6%–18.3%)	5.9% (5.0%–6.7%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.8%)	3.8% (3.2%–4.4%)	7.4% (6.6%–8.2%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.9%)
14 Sept 2023	31.5% (29.7%–33.2%)	30.4% (28.7%–32.0%)	16.1% (14.4%–18.0%)	6.0% (5.1%–6.8%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.8%)	3.8% (3.3%–4.4%)	7.5% (6.7%–8.3%)	2.5% (2.0%–2.9%)
11 Aug 2023	31.9% (30.1%–33.7%)	30.2% (28.5%–31.9%)	15.3% (13.5%–17.1%)	6.1% (5.2%–7.0%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.8%)	4.0% (3.3%–4.6%)	7.7% (6.9%–8.6%)	2.5% (2.0%–2.9%)
15 Jul 2023	32.3% (30.5%–34.1%)	30.0% (28.4%–31.8%)	14.8% (13.1%–16.6%)	6.2% (5.3%–7.1%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.8%)	4.1% (3.4%–4.7%)	7.8% (6.9%–8.7%)	2.5% (2.0%–2.9%)
11 Jul 2023	32.4% (30.5%–34.1%)	30.0% (28.3%–31.8%)	14.8% (13.1%–16.5%)	6.2% (5.3%–7.1%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.8%)	4.1% (3.5%–4.7%)	7.8% (6.9%–8.7%)	2.5% (2.0%–2.9%)
6 Jul 2023	32.4% (30.6%–34.2%)	30.0% (28.3%–31.8%)	14.7% (13.1%–16.5%)	6.2% (5.3%–7.2%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.8%)	4.1% (3.5%–4.8%)	7.8% (6.9%–8.7%)	2.5% (2.0%–2.9%)
21 Jun 2023	32.7% (30.8%–34.5%)	30.0% (28.4%–31.8%)	14.5% (12.9%–16.3%)	6.2% (5.3%–7.1%)	2.3% (1.8%–2.8%)	4.1% (3.5%–4.8%)	7.8% (6.9%–8.6%)	2.5% (2.0%–2.9%)
31 May 2023	33.0% (31.2%–34.8%)	30.1% (28.4%–31.9%)	14.4% (12.7%–16.0%)	6.1% (5.2%–7.0%)	2.2% (1.7%–2.7%)	4.2% (3.5%–4.8%)	7.7% (6.8%–8.6%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.9%)
28 May 2023	33.0% (31.2%–34.8%)	30.1% (28.5%–31.9%)	14.4% (12.6%–16.0%)	6.1% (5.2%–7.0%)	2.2% (1.7%–2.7%)	4.2% (3.5%–4.9%)	7.7% (6.8%–8.5%)	2.4% (2.0%–2.9%)

Seat distributions by bloc

Each bloc’s seats, simulation by simulation

Each dot is one simulation, at the bloc’s exact seat count. The solid line marks the median; the dashed line, the majority. Arithmetic grouping of projected seats; not a prediction that these parties will form a government together.

Majority (116 of 230)

750 of the 9,000 simulations drawn, chosen at regular intervals; the medians and the table use all 9,000.

View as table

Projected seats by bloc, across all simulations
Bloc	P5	P25	Median	P75	P95	Majority odds
PS + L + CDU + BE	77	79	82	84	87	under 1%
AD + IL	94	97	99	102	105	under 1%

Individual party projections

Seats by party

Based on 9,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Dots show the mean; bands show 50% (P25–P75) and 80% (P10–P90) credible intervals.

View as table

Projected seats by party
Party	P10	P25	Mean	P75	P90
Aliança Democrática	86	88	90	92	94
Partido Socialista	66	68	70	72	74
Chega	45	47	49	51	53
Iniciativa Liberal	8	9	10	11	11
Livre	5	5	6	7	8
CDU	2	3	3	4	4
Bloco de Esquerda	2	2	2	2	2
PAN	0	0	0	0	1

District analysis

District map

Seats in play and the party ahead, by district

Seats in play (7 districts)

Districts where seat allocation is uncertain: small changes in vote share could flip seats between parties.

ENSC (effective number of seat changes) measures seat-allocation uncertainty. Districts with ENSC > 0.8 count as having "seats in play": small vote-share changes could flip seats between parties under the D'Hondt proportional system.

The +1 and −1 compare each party with its own most frequent seat count in that district across the simulations, not with 2024, and include two seats or more. Because each party is compared with its own count, a district’s gains and losses need not balance: when a seat is split almost evenly between two parties, each can show +1 or −1, depending on its own most frequent count; in Castelo Branco, both show −1.

Lisboa

ENSC 3.04

Chega

+1 seat or more: 26%•−1 seat or more: 30%

Partido Socialista

+1 seat or more: 43%•−1 seat or more: 10%

Aliança Democrática

+1 seat or more: 24%•−1 seat or more: 26%

CDU

+1 seat or more: 43%

Livre

+1 seat or more: 16%•−1 seat or more: 25%

Iniciativa Liberal

+1 seat or more: 25%•−1 seat or more: 15%

PAN

+1 seat or more: 19%

Porto

ENSC 2.17

Chega

+1 seat or more: 47%•−1 seat or more: 7%

Iniciativa Liberal

−1 seat or more: 46%

Aliança Democrática

+1 seat or more: 27%•−1 seat or more: 18%

Partido Socialista

+1 seat or more: 26%•−1 seat or more: 14%

Livre

−1 seat or more: 13%

CDU

−1 seat or more: 15%

Braga

ENSC 1.37

Chega

+1 seat or more: 48%

Livre

+1 seat or more: 40%

Aliança Democrática

+1 seat or more: 27%

Partido Socialista

−1 seat or more: 14%

Aveiro

ENSC 1.29

Aliança Democrática

−1 seat or more: 46%

Partido Socialista

+1 seat or more: 45%

Livre

+1 seat or more: 14%

Chega

+1 seat or more: 5%•−1 seat or more: 7%

Iniciativa Liberal

−1 seat or more: 11%

Leiria

ENSC 1.04

Partido Socialista

+1 seat or more: 46%

Chega

+1 seat or more: 34%

Iniciativa Liberal

+1 seat or more: 16%

Aliança Democrática

+1 seat or more: 6%

Castelo Branco

ENSC 1.00

Partido Socialista

−1 seat or more: 50%

Aliança Democrática

−1 seat or more: 50%

Guarda

ENSC 0.99

Chega

+1 seat or more: 50%

Aliança Democrática

−1 seat or more: 50%

Party ahead in votes, by district

All 20 districts and regions, by the party with the highest predicted vote share. It is neither a seat count nor a probability of winning.

Aliança Democrática

districts

Partido Socialista

districts

Chega

district

Within 1 percentage point between the top two: Castelo Branco (PS 32.0%, AD 31.9%). The count and the map give these districts to the party ahead, but the forecast was close to a tie.

Districts and regions

With seats in play

Below the threshold (ENSC ≤ 0.8)

Below the threshold does not mean settled. With an ENSC between 0.4 and 0.8: Portalegre (CH −1 seat or more: 36%), Faro (PS −1 seat or more: 27%), Setúbal (CH −1 seat or more: 21%) and Santarém (AD +1 seat or more: 20%).

Projected vote share for election day (18 May 2025), in the forecast of 16 May 2025; in brackets, the 94% credible interval (HDI).

PS + L + CDU + BE

Socialist Party

27.7% (25.9%–29.6%)

Livre

4.7% (3.8%–5.5%)

Unitary Democratic Coalition

3.2% (2.7%–3.8%)

Left Bloc

2.7% (2.2%–3.1%)

Majority chanceunder1%

AD + IL

Democratic Alliance

34.2% (32.2%–36.3%)

Liberal Initiative

5.6% (4.8%–6.5%)

Majority chanceunder1%

Other parties

Chega

20.5% (18.3%–22.6%)

People-Animals-Nature

1.3% (1.1%–1.7%)

Polling house effects

Each polling firm’s deviation, by party

View the matrix: 7 pollsters × 8 parties

Pollster	AD	PS	CH	IL	L	CDU	BE	PAN
Aximage	−0.04			+0.05	+0.09			+0.04
CESOP–Católica			−0.03	+0.18	+0.15			−0.14
Consulmark2	+0.03	−0.03		+0.22	+0.22	−0.04		−0.21
ICS/ISCTE/GfK Metris		+0.04	+0.04	−0.24	−0.39	+0.06		+0.04
Intercampus	−0.12	−0.08		+0.25	+0.24	−0.06		+0.27
Metris					−0.19			−0.04
Pitagórica			−0.03	+0.19	+0.20		−0.04	−0.11

House effects are each firm’s estimated systematic deviation for each party, on the logit scale: in red, the firm tended to give that party more support; in blue, less.

Blank cells: a deviation smaller than 0.02 in absolute value. The table below has every value, to three decimal places.

Logit is the model’s scale before it turns values into percentages. Each deviation is a component that sums to zero across each firm’s parties, multiplied by a standard deviation of each party’s own; so the table’s rows do not sum exactly to zero.

View as table

Each polling firm’s effect on each party, in logit
Pollster	AD	PS	CH	IL	L	CDU	BE	PAN
Aximage	−0.039	−0.006	+0.018	+0.051	+0.094	−0.016	−0.008	+0.041
CESOP–Católica	+0.010	+0.007	−0.025	+0.175	+0.152	+0.004	−0.018	−0.139
Consulmark2	+0.027	−0.028	−0.010	+0.220	+0.222	−0.039	+0.011	−0.213
ICS/ISCTE/GfK Metris	+0.019	+0.038	+0.043	−0.239	−0.390	+0.064	−0.016	+0.037
Intercampus	−0.116	−0.078	−0.005	+0.246	+0.237	−0.057	+0.017	+0.265
Metris	+0.004	+0.017	+0.010	+0.016	−0.191	+0.019	+0.005	−0.043
Pitagórica	+0.004	+0.010	−0.026	+0.191	+0.196	+0.009	−0.039	−0.108

About this model

Data sources

Polls by Aximage, CESOP–Católica, Consulmark2, ICS/ISCTE/GfK Metris, Intercampus, Metris and Pitagórica, up to the last one, on 15 May 2025, and the results of previous parliamentary elections (CNE), from which the differences between districts come.

Methodology

Monte Carlo simulation that accounts for polling uncertainty, differences between districts and seat allocation by the D'Hondt method.

Methodology

Updates

The model was updated as new polls came out. This is the last forecast published, on 16 May 2025.

Official results (SGMAI)