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Estrela

Season 2026-27 · Matchday 5

Champion
0%
Top 3
0%
Relegation
17%
Expected points: 37 ± 7Most likely finish: 14th (10%)Attack:17thDefense:14th

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

5th
2%
6th
3%
7th
4%
8th
5%
9th
6%
10th
7%
11th
8%
12th
9%
13th
10%
14th
10%
15th
10%
16th
10%
17th
10%
18th
7%

Probability over time

How relegation probability has evolved across matchdays.

Survival scenarios

Three possible paths to avoiding relegation, based on model simulations.

4 wins

2% of survival scenarios
83%
↓
99%
GW7ACV(H)Win
83%→89%
GW15MAR(H)Win
89%→93%
GW21NAC(H)Win
93%→97%
GW27MOR(H)Win
97%→99%
Also needs to happen
Casa Pia drops points vs EAM (GW26)
Casa Pia drops points vs RIO (GW30)

3 wins, 1 loss

2% of survival scenarios
83%
↓
95%
GW7ACV(H)Win
83%→89%
GW15MAR(H)Win
89%→93%
GW21NAC(H)Loss
93%→90%
GW27MOR(H)Win
90%→95%
Also needs to happen
Casa Pia drops points vs STC (GW8)

3 wins, 1 loss

2% of survival scenarios
83%
↓
96%
GW7ACV(H)Win
83%→89%
GW15MAR(H)Win
89%→93%
GW21NAC(H)Win
93%→97%
GW27MOR(H)Loss
97%→96%
Also needs to happen
Rio Ave drops points vs MAR (GW31)

Build your scenario

Pick results and see how the probability changes match by match.

MD
W
D
L
Survival
3
Sp. Braga(H)
83%
6
Rio Ave(A)
83%
7
Ac. Viseu(H)
83%
8
Arouca(A)
83%
9
Casa Pia(H)
83%
10
Moreirense(A)
83%
11
Benfica(H)
83%
12
Vitória(A)
83%
13
Gil Vicente(H)
83%
14
Porto(A)
83%
15
Marítimo(H)
83%
16
Santa Clara(A)
83%
17
Estoril(H)
83%
18
Sporting(A)
83%
19
Alverca(H)
83%
20
Sp. Braga(A)
83%
21
Nacional(H)
83%
22
Famalicão(A)
83%
23
Rio Ave(H)
83%
24
Ac. Viseu(A)
83%
25
Arouca(H)
83%
26
Casa Pia(A)
83%
27
Moreirense(H)
83%
28
Benfica(A)
83%
29
Vitória(H)
83%
30
Gil Vicente(A)
83%
31
Porto(H)
83%
32
Marítimo(A)
83%
33
Santa Clara(H)
83%
34
Estoril(A)
83%

Estrela Amadora's matches affecting the race

Estrela Amadora's fixtures that influence the title race or relegation battle.

Relegation battle

Casa Pia
EstrelavsCasa Pia
GW9
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 50%·If they lose: 69%
Casa PiavsEstrela
GW26
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 52%·If they lose: 71%