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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Estrela

Liga Portugal forecast for Estrela: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
12%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 37 (90% of simulations between 27 and 47)Most likely finish: 14th (11%)Attack: 14th · Defence: 13th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Estrela can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

5th
1.0%
6th
2.2%
7th
3.6%
8th
5.0%
9th
6.5%
10th
8.1%
11th
9.1%
12th
10%
13th
11%
14th
11%
15th
10%
16th
9.4%
17th
7.4%
18th
4.8%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th0.1%
5th1.0%
6th2.2%
7th3.6%
8th5.0%
9th6.5%
10th8.1%
11th9.1%
12th10%
13th11%
14th11%
15th10%
16th9.4%
17th7.4%
18th4.8%

14th is the most likely finish (11%); 70% of the simulations end between 10th and 16th.

Next match

What is at stake for Estrela against Casa Pia

Estrela: relegation· Next match · Sat 24 Oct · 15:30 · at home

Now
12%
If they win
7.5%
If they draw
13%
If they lose
18%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Estrela winning this match: 42%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model26%
MD1 · 11 Aug32%
MD2 · 14 Aug32%
MD3 · 29 Aug26%
MD4 · 5 Sept17%
MD5 · 12 Sept9.7%
MD6 · 19 Sept9.5%
MD7 · 25 Sept10%
MD8 · 11 Oct12%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Estrela's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Estrela's relegation chance by 7 to 12 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Casa Pia(H)
  2. Matchday 10Moreirense(A)
  3. Matchday 11Benfica(H)
  4. Matchday 12Vitória(A)
  5. Matchday 13Gil Vicente(H)
  6. Matchday 14Porto(A)
The other 20 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Marítimo(H)
  2. Matchday 16Santa Clara(A)
  3. Matchday 17Estoril(H)
  4. Matchday 18Sporting(A)
  5. Matchday 19Alverca(H)
  6. Matchday 20Sp. Braga(A)
  7. Matchday 21Nacional(H)
  8. Matchday 22Famalicão(A)
  9. Matchday 23Rio Ave(H)
  10. Matchday 24Ac. Viseu(A)
  11. Matchday 25Arouca(H)
  12. Matchday 26Casa Pia(A)
  13. Matchday 27Moreirense(H)
  14. Matchday 28Benfica(A)
  15. Matchday 29Vitória(H)
  16. Matchday 30Gil Vicente(A)
  17. Matchday 31Porto(H)
  18. Matchday 32Marítimo(A)
  19. Matchday 33Santa Clara(H)
  20. Matchday 34Estoril(A)

Relegation · now

12%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Estrela's relegation chance (now 12%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Estrela and Moreirense

Who finishes with more points, Estrela or another club of your choice.

Estrela

Relegation: 12%Points (median): 36
Relegation: 15%Points (median): 36

Estrela finish with more points than Moreirense in 48% of the seasons; Moreirense, in 48%; they finish level on points in 3.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Estrela and Moreirense
Points gap at the end of the season: Estrela and Moreirense
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Estrela ahead by 22–28 pts20.7%
Estrela ahead by 15–21 pts227.3%
Estrela ahead by 8–14 pts3411%
Estrela ahead by 1–7 pts8629%
level on points113.7%
Moreirense ahead by 1–7 pts7726%
Moreirense ahead by 8–14 pts4415%
Moreirense ahead by 15–21 pts217.0%
Moreirense ahead by 22–28 pts31.0%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data