Estrela – Casa Pia

Probability of relegation, now and under each of the three possible results, on the same scale.

The vertical line marks the current probability (now); the bars show each result, on the same scale. This is not the chance the match ends that way — see the match-probabilities section above. How it is computed

For comparison: Estrela's relegation chance is currently 9.7%.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

EstrelaHome

P: 7Pts: 10GD: 0

Form

L0–2Ac. Viseu (H, at home)

D3–3Rio Ave (A, away)

W2–1Sp. Braga (H, at home)

D2–2Famalicão (H, at home)

W3–2Nacional (A, away)

Model strength

Attack14th

Defence13th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 8.1xGF: 8.6xGA: 11.5Pts − xPts: +1.9

Casa PiaAway

P: 8Pts: 4GD: −14

Form

L0–1Santa Clara (H, at home)

W2–1Estoril (A, away)

L1–4Porto (H, at home)

D0–0Vitória (A, away)

L0–1Moreirense (H, at home)

Model strength

Attack18th

Defence15th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 7.8xGF: 6.9xGA: 12.6Pts − xPts: −3.8

Squads

Known absentees and each side's players on the published finishing list of 40 (SAR, skill above replacement). Neither absences nor individual players feed this forecast: the model uses goals, shots on target and each squad's value. Absences recorded as of 11 October 2026.

Estrela

Unavailable· 36% of squad value

• Jeremy ArévaloCentre-ForwardBack problems7 M€

Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season).

• Leandro AntonettiForward0.17
• Ianis StoicaForward0.16

Casa Pia

Unavailable· 11% of squad value

• André GomesGoalkeeperMuscle injury2.5 M€

Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season).

• CassianoForward0.20
• Henrique AraújoForward0.12

SAR: goals per 90 minutes above a replacement-level player, with extreme values capped.