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Liga Portugal
Matchday 9

Alverca – Arouca

What the model expects from this match, and what each result changes for both clubs.

Forecast of 11 Oct (after matchday 8) · next update after matchday 8
Alverca
Arouca
Saturday 24 October at 18:00
Alverca win
43%
at home
Draw
27%
Arouca win
30%
away
Most likely outcome: Alverca (43%)

Favourite among three outcomes — not the same as being more likely than all alternatives combined: Alverca wins in 43% of scenarios, but doesn't in 57%.

What changes for Alverca?

Probability of relegation, now and under each of the three possible results, on the same scale.

Now
2.8%
If Alverca win
1.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from now
If they draw
3.0%, up 0.2 percentage points from now
If Alverca lose
4.4%, up 1.6 percentage points from now

The vertical line marks the current probability (now); the bars show each result, on the same scale. This is not the chance the match ends that way — see the match-probabilities section above. How it is computed

For comparison: Arouca's relegation chance is currently 1.6%.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

AlvercaHome
P: 7Pts: 8GD: −2
Form
W1–0Rio Ave (H, at home)
W3–1Nacional (A, away)
L1–2Sp. Braga (H, at home)
D1–1Santa Clara (H, at home)
L1–3Sporting (A, away)
Model strength
Attack8th
Defence9th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 8.0xGF: 10.0xGA: 12.1Pts − xPts: 0.0
AroucaAway
P: 7Pts: 11GD: +3
Form
D2–2Sporting (A, away)
L1–2Santa Clara (H, at home)
D0–0Estoril (A, away)
W2–1Marítimo (H, at home)
L0–2Porto (A, away)
Model strength
Attack9th
Defence12th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 9.5xGF: 8.9xGA: 9.8Pts − xPts: +1.5
Team page: AlvercaTeam page: Arouca

Squads

Known absentees and each side's players on the published finishing list of 40 (SAR, skill above replacement). Neither absences nor individual players feed this forecast: the model uses goals, shots on target and each squad's value. Absences recorded as of 11 October 2026.

Alverca
Unavailable
No absences on record. This is not proof of a fully available squad.
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season).

  • ChiquinhoForward0.13
  • FigueiredoForward0.13
Arouca
Unavailable
No absences on record. This is not proof of a fully available squad.
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season).

  • Ivan BarberoForward0.26
  • Dylan NandínForward0.14

SAR: goals per 90 minutes above a replacement-level player, with extreme values capped.

Other fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 11 Oct · 15:30Rio Ave – NacionalRio Ave 44% · draw 26% · Nacional 30%
  2. Sun 11 Oct · 18:00Benfica – VitóriaBenfica 73% · draw 17% · Vitória 10%
  3. Sun 11 Oct · 20:30Arouca – EstrelaArouca 47% · draw 27% · Estrela 26%
  4. Mon 12 Oct · 20:15Famalicão – AlvercaFamalicão 45% · draw 28% · Alverca 27%
  5. Mon 19 Oct · 20:15 · postponed, matchday 2Sp. Braga – Gil VicenteSp. Braga 61% · draw 23% · Gil Vicente 16%
  6. Fri 23 Oct · 20:45Vitória – MarítimoVitória 57% · draw 25% · Marítimo 18%
  7. Sat 24 Oct · 15:30Estrela – Casa PiaEstrela 42% · draw 29% · Casa Pia 29%
  8. Sat 24 Oct · 20:30Gil Vicente – PortoGil Vicente 13% · draw 22% · Porto 65%
  9. Sun 25 Oct · 15:30Estoril – MoreirenseEstoril 50% · draw 26% · Moreirense 24%
  10. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Rio Ave – FamalicãoRio Ave 31% · draw 27% · Famalicão 42%
  11. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Nacional – Sp. BragaNacional 17% · draw 22% · Sp. Braga 61%
  12. Sun 25 Oct · 20:30Sporting – Ac. ViseuSporting 88% · draw 8.6% · Ac. Viseu 3.3%
  13. Mon 26 Oct · 18:45Santa Clara – BenficaSanta Clara 14% · draw 22% · Benfica 65%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · forecast of 11 October 2026