Beat the Model

For each game you pick a result: a home win, a draw or an away win. Your pick gives that result 55%, or 40% and 70% if you say you are a little or very sure; the rest is split between the other two.

The model has its own percentages for each game, frozen when the matchday opened. They appear here only once the matchday closes, at its first game; until then they are on the Liga Portugal page.

After each game we see whose forecast came closer to what happened, with the measure we grade the model by (the Ranked Probability Score). What weighs most is the percentage given to the result, but where the rest went counts too: when the away side wins, having picked the draw costs less than having picked the home win.

You win the matchday if you were closer than the model in more games than it was. Only the games you picked count, and over the season only matchdays whose games have all been played count.

The model’s percentages for matchdays 3, 5, 6, 7 and 9 were frozen before the previous matchday ended, without the results still to come; they count as frozen.