Liga Portugal 2026-27 · MD8

Porto win the league in half of the simulated seasons

In 24,639 of 50,000 simulated seasons. Sporting in 14,134, Benfica in 11,190 and Sp. Braga in 35.

Your club

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct) · Sporting +2.4 pp on the title since the forecast after matchday 7

Predicted standings

Predicted standings based on 50,000 simulations. Mean points and probabilities for each outcome.

Choose a club in the table to see its page.

Ordered by predicted end-of-season points (Pred.). Current points are on each club's page and on a wider screen.

Team		Model forecast
Team		After matchday 8		Model forecast
#	Team	GP	Pts	Predicted pts	Final points, now and at the end	Goal diff	Champion	Top 3	Relegation
1	Porto	8	24	81.7 90% of simulations between 72–91		+51	49%, down 2.2 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7	99%	0%
2	Sporting	8	18	78.7 90% of simulations between 69–87		+55	28%, up 2.4 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7	98%	0%
3	Benfica	8	19	77.6 90% of simulations between 68–87		+56	22%	97%	0%
4	Sp. Braga	7	11	61.3 90% of simulations between 51–72		+20	0.1%	5.3%	0%
5	Santa Clara	8	18	50.3 90% of simulations between 40–61		+3	0%	0.2%	0.1%
6	Arouca	8	14	45.0 90% of simulations between 35–56		−4	0%	<0.1%	0.8%, down 1.0 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7
7	Famalicão	7	7	44.3 90% of simulations between 34–55		+2	0%	<0.1%	1.2%
8	Gil Vicente	7	11	44.2 90% of simulations between 34–55		−5	0%	<0.1%	1.2%, down 1.5 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7
9	Alverca	7	8	42.4 90% of simulations between 32–53		−7	0%	<0.1%	2.6%
10	Vitória	8	5	41.7 90% of simulations between 31–53		−4	0%	0%	2.9%
11	Ac. Viseu	8	14	39.4 90% of simulations between 29–50		−17	0%	0%	5.9%, down 5.5 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7
12	Estrela	8	10	36.6 90% of simulations between 27–47		−16	0%	0%	12%, up 1.8 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7
13	Rio Ave	8	7	36.2 90% of simulations between 26–47		−21	0%	0%	15%, down 8.6 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7
14	Moreirense	8	8	36.1 90% of simulations between 26–47		−19	0%	0%	15%, up 2.5 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7
15	Estoril	8	2	35.2 90% of simulations between 25–46		−13	0%	0%	18%, up 3.8 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7
16	Marítimo	8	8	32.8 90% of simulations between 23–43		−24	0%	0%	31%
17	Nacional	8	4	30.7 90% of simulations between 21–41		−25	0%	0%	44%, up 4.8 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7
18	Casa Pia	8	4	29.7 90% of simulations between 20–40		−31	0%	0%	52%, up 4.6 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 7

On a wider screen the table also shows current points, goal difference and top 3; each club's page has everything.

Relegation = 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

what has already happenedthe model’s margin, 90%black tick: the median

Final points are a distribution, not a number: the range shows where 90% of the 50,000 simulated seasons fall. Over 9 seasons (2017-18 to 2025-26), the 90% interval contained the final points total 89.3% of the time.

Points above and below xG

Expected points (xPts) computed from each match's expected goals (xG), compared with actual points. This measures finishing efficiency and variance — it is not a clean split between luck and talent.

← UnderperformingOverperforming →

Porto24 real pts17.4 expected

+6.6

24 real pts17.4 expected

Ac. Viseu14 real pts8.7 expected

+5.3

14 real pts8.7 expected

Arouca14 real pts10.3 expected

+3.7

14 real pts10.3 expected

Santa Clara18 real pts14.5 expected

+3.5

18 real pts14.5 expected

Sporting18 real pts15.8 expected

+2.2

18 real pts15.8 expected

Moreirense8 real pts6.2 expected

+1.8

8 real pts6.2 expected

Rio Ave7 real pts5.9 expected

+1.1

7 real pts5.9 expected

Benfica19 real pts18.8 expected

+0.2

19 real pts18.8 expected

Estrela10 real pts10.0 expected

0.0

10 real pts10.0 expected

Marítimo8 real pts8.0 expected

0.0

8 real pts8.0 expected

Alverca8 real pts8.0 expected

0.0

8 real pts8.0 expected

Gil Vicente11 real pts11.7 expected

−0.7

11 real pts11.7 expected

Sp. Braga11 real pts12.1 expected

−1.1

11 real pts12.1 expected

Famalicão7 real pts8.4 expected

−1.4

7 real pts8.4 expected

Casa Pia4 real pts7.8 expected

−3.8

4 real pts7.8 expected

Nacional4 real pts8.5 expected

−4.5

4 real pts8.5 expected

Estoril2 real pts8.0 expected

−6.0

2 real pts8.0 expected

Vitória5 real pts13.6 expected

−8.6

5 real pts13.6 expected

View as table

Actual points and expected points from xG, by team
Team	Points	Expected (xPts)	Difference
Porto	24	17.4	+6.6
Ac. Viseu	14	8.7	+5.3
Arouca	14	10.3	+3.7
Santa Clara	18	14.5	+3.5
Sporting	18	15.8	+2.2
Moreirense	8	6.2	+1.8
Rio Ave	7	5.9	+1.1
Benfica	19	18.8	+0.2
Estrela	10	10.0	0.0
Marítimo	8	8.0	0.0
Alverca	8	8.0	0.0
Gil Vicente	11	11.7	−0.7
Sp. Braga	11	12.1	−1.1
Famalicão	7	8.4	−1.4
Casa Pia	4	7.8	−3.8
Nacional	4	8.5	−4.5
Estoril	2	8.0	−6.0
Vitória	5	13.6	−8.6

Fixtures to come

Matchdays 8 and 9 · 12–26 October, plus one postponed match

In kickoff order, Lisbon time. Under each game, what it puts at stake for the club playing whose title or relegation chance it moves most: that chance if they win, draw or lose. How we measure each match's weight

Chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, and what each game puts at stake
Game, Lisbon time	Home	Draw	Away
Mon 12 Oct · 20:15Famalicão – Alverca	45%	28%	27%
Little at stake: neither club’s title or relegation chance moves by 5 percentage points.
Mon 19 Oct · 20:15 · postponed, matchday 2Sp. Braga – Gil Vicente	61%	23%	16%
Little at stake: neither club’s title or relegation chance moves by 5 percentage points.
Fri 23 Oct · 20:45Vitória – Marítimo	57%	25%	18%
Marítimo’s relegation chance: 19% if they win, 29% if they draw, 35% if they lose.
Sat 24 Oct · 15:30Estrela – Casa Pia	42%	29%	29%
Casa Pia’s relegation chance: 40% if they win, 52% if they draw, 60% if they lose.
Sat 24 Oct · 18:00Alverca – Arouca	43%	27%	30%
Little at stake: neither club’s title or relegation chance moves by 5 percentage points.
Sat 24 Oct · 20:30Gil Vicente – Porto	13%	22%	65%
Porto’s title chance: 54% if they win, 42% if they draw, 37% if they lose.

Chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, and what each game puts at stake
Game, Lisbon time	Home	Draw	Away
Sun 25 Oct · 15:30Estoril – Moreirense	50%	26%	24%
Estoril’s relegation chance: 13% if they win, 20% if they draw, 26% if they lose.
Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Rio Ave – Famalicão	31%	27%	42%
Rio Ave’s relegation chance: 9.1% if they win, 15% if they draw, 19% if they lose.
Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Nacional – Sp. Braga	16%	22%	62%
Nacional’s relegation chance: 30% if they win, 40% if they draw, 48% if they lose.
Sun 25 Oct · 20:30Sporting – Ac. Viseu	88%	9%	3%
Sporting’s title chance: 30% if they win, 20% if they draw, 15% if they lose.
Mon 26 Oct · 18:45Santa Clara – Benfica	14%	22%	65%
Benfica’s title chance: 26% if they win, 17% if they draw, 14% if they lose.

What we said and what happened

Each count of the season, with the range the model gave it before the games.

Results
Count	The model	Happened
Home wins62 games	expected 26.0range 20–32	25inside
Draws62 games	expected 14.9range 10–20	14inside
Away wins62 games	expected 21.1range 16–27	23inside

Favourite wins, by how sure the model was
Count	The model	Happened
Favourite at 70% or more14 games	expected 10.8range 8–13	13inside
Favourite at 55% to 70%8 games	expected 5.1range 3–7	5inside
Favourite at 40% to 55%31 games	expected 14.4range 10–19	13inside
Favourite under 40%9 games	expected 3.4range 1–6	6inside

what has already happenedthe model’s margin, 90%

This season's 62 games with probabilities published before kickoff. The range is each count's distribution if the published probabilities were right, game by game (it falls inside 90% of the time); with few games, the ranges are wide.

Title race

Chance of the title, matchday by matchday

One line per club that has been above 1%. Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

Read with care: in past seasons the model underrated teams leading by 3 or more points (it gave them 63% on average, and they won the title 82% of the time, leaving out two cases with a data error). How we checked

View as table

Champion (%)
Team	MD8 · 11 Oct	MD7 · 25 Sept	MD6 · 19 Sept	MD5 · 12 Sept	MD4 · 5 Sept	MD3 · 29 Aug	MD2 · 14 Aug	MD1 · 11 Aug	MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model
Porto	49%	51%	26%	22%	24%	19%	18%	18%	16%
Sporting	28%	26%	44%	53%	55%	59%	60%	59%	59%
Benfica	22%	22%	30%	25%	21%	22%	22%	22%	24%

Relegation battle

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Relegation means finishing 17th or 18th; 16th goes to a play-off and is not counted here. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table

Relegation (%)
Team	MD8 · 11 Oct	MD7 · 25 Sept	MD6 · 19 Sept	MD5 · 12 Sept	MD4 · 5 Sept	MD3 · 29 Aug	MD2 · 14 Aug	MD1 · 11 Aug	MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model
Casa Pia	52%	47%	66%	63%	63%	54%	42%	42%	25%
Nacional	44%	39%	20%	20%	14%	9.5%	13%	12%	12%
Marítimo	31%	31%	18%	14%	13%	13%	15%	16%	42%
Estoril	18%	14%	16%	14%	12%	12%	6.9%	7.1%	4.1%

Team strengths

Estimated attack and defence

View as table

Attack and defence strengths by team, on a log scale centred on the league average; positive is better in both columns
Team	Attack	Defence
Sporting	+0.78	+0.65
Porto	+0.63	+0.71
Benfica	+0.75	+0.54
Sp. Braga	+0.44	+0.35
Vitória	+0.10	+0.17
Famalicão	+0.10	+0.17
Santa Clara	−0.07	+0.22
Estoril	+0.13	0.00
Gil Vicente	0.00	+0.13
Alverca	+0.04	+0.04
Arouca	+0.03	−0.02
Rio Ave	+0.01	−0.10
Moreirense	−0.14	−0.03
Nacional	−0.06	−0.12
Estrela	−0.13	−0.06
Casa Pia	−0.17	−0.09
Ac. Viseu	−0.14	−0.13
Marítimo	−0.15	−0.14

More on the Liga

We simulated the rest of the season 50,000 times, varying each match result based on team performance, squad value, and home advantage. The probabilities shown reflect how often each outcome occurs across those simulations.

Methodology Open forecast data

Porto win the league in half of the simulated seasons

Predicted standings

Points above and below xG

Matchdays 8 and 9 · 12–26 October, plus one postponed match

What we said and what happened

Title race

Chance of the title, matchday by matchday

Relegation battle

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Team strengths

Estimated attack and defence

More on the Liga

Beat the Model (weekly game)

Model vs market

The 2025-26 season, reviewed

Players: one metric per dimension