Our mission
Each section answers a question about Portugal with data and an explained model; the list below says what is published today and in what state.
We believe that understanding the country takes more than commentary: it takes numbers with a date, a source and a stated uncertainty, and models explained well enough to be checked.
Who makes estimador.pt
estimador.pt is made by Bernardo Caldas. The published data releases are kept in the project's GitHub organisation, github.com/estimadorpt.
For questions, suggestions or media enquiries, write to info@estimador.pt. The privacy policy describes what the site records about its visitors.
What is published today
Population
Released · synthetic population v1.0.3 (2021 Census), dated 5 October 2026.
To the best of our knowledge, the first open-access synthetic population to cover every parish in Portugal, generated from the 2021 Census. That is the 3,092 parishes of the 2021 Census (CAOP 2021 boundaries). Generated people and households, not real people, families or addresses. You can look up your parish, play the daily Mystery parish and download the microdata.
Liga Portugal
Published on a continuing basis · latest forecast after matchday 8, updated 11 October 2026.
A Bayesian model that simulates thousands of possible seasons to estimate the final table, the title and relegation probabilities and what each match does to them. Dedicated Bayesian models also rate the players, one per dimension; the finishing and attacking contribution models include the 2026-27 season, in progress.
Presidential election 2026
Archive · forecast preserved as published.
The forecasts we published for both rounds, with the information available at the time: that cycle's polls, each candidate's estimated trend and the probabilities for both rounds. The pollster house effects were estimated but came out very close to zero and are not shown. They are not updated, nor rewritten with the outcome.
Parliamentary election 2025
Archive · not updated with new results.
The national seat projections, simulated district by district with the D’Hondt method, the districts with seats in play and the pollster house effects estimated at the time.
Economy
In preparation · no readings of the economy published yet.
A read of Portuguese economic indicators: activity, the labour market and inflation. Once published, each figure will say whether it is an official value or our estimate, the period it refers to and its publication date. Until then, the explanations of how to read the indicators are available.
Our approach
Each section uses the method its question calls for: Bayesian statistical models for Liga Portugal and the elections, and a synthetic population fitted to the 2021 Census tables for the population. In all of them, the numbers state their date, their source and how uncertain they are, or say that no margin of error was calculated.
Principles:
- Transparency: open methodology, with documentation of the models, the data and the assumptions.
- Independence: no external funding and no editorial pressure.
- Accuracy: we say how each result is evaluated and claim only what is published. The Liga Portugal model is checked against actual results and bookmakers' closing odds in Model vs market; how we measure the synthetic population's quality is on Quality, and each parish's tier (A, B or C) is on the parish's own page. An evaluation of the election forecasts against the results is not published.
- Accessibility: numbers and probabilities presented so that any reader can follow them.
Limitations and caveats
Probabilistic forecasting is uncertain by nature, which is why we present probabilities, not certainties. A forecast of 70% also means a 30% chance of the opposite. The models account for several sources of uncertainty, but there are always unpredictable factors.
The synthetic population is not a forecast: it is people and households generated to reproduce the Census tables, in a single run with no margin of error calculated. Read its numbers as an estimate of the 2021 picture, not as a count of real people.
Reusing the figures and charts
The figures, tables and charts that estimador.pt's models produce (the Liga Portugal forecasts, the archived election forecasts and the synthetic population) may be reused for non-commercial purposes and with attribution, under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC 4.0): name estimador.pt as the source and link to the page they come from. For commercial use, write to us.
The licence does not cover the third-party data the site shows beside those figures: polls, official results, bookmakers' odds, players' market values and match statistics stay under the terms of their sources, which each page names. Nor does it cover the estimador.pt name, logo and mark.
To cite a page: estimador.pt, "page title", page address, accessed (date). The synthetic population has its own citation, with the release number, under Open data, and every parish page ends with a "How to cite" block; the Liga Portugal files and their terms are on Liga Portugal data.