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Liga Portugal
Matchday 9

Santa Clara – Benfica

What the model expects from this match, and what each result changes for both clubs.

Forecast of 11 Oct (after matchday 8) · next update after matchday 8
Santa Clara
Benfica
Monday 26 October at 18:45
Santa Clara win
14%
at home
Draw
22%
Benfica win
65%
away
Most likely outcome: Benfica (65%)

What changes for Benfica?

Probability of winning the title, now and under each of the three possible results, on the same scale.

Now
20%
If Benfica win
23%, up 3.3 percentage points from now
If they draw
15%, down 4.7 percentage points from now
If Benfica lose
12%, down 7.9 percentage points from now

The vertical line marks the current probability (now); the bars show each result, on the same scale. This is not the chance the match ends that way — see the match-probabilities section above. How it is computed

For comparison: Santa Clara's title chance is currently 0%.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

Santa ClaraHome
P: 8Pts: 18GD: +8
Form
W1–0Casa Pia (A, away)
D0–0Sp. Braga (H, at home)
W2–1Arouca (A, away)
W4–0Rio Ave (H, at home)
D1–1Alverca (A, away)
Model strength
Attack12th
Defence5th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 14.5xGF: 10.2xGA: 5.3Pts − xPts: +3.5
BenficaAway
P: 7Pts: 16GD: +15
Form
L1–3Porto (A, away)
W3–1Gil Vicente (H, at home)
W4–0Moreirense (A, away)
W3–0Marítimo (A, away)
W2–1Estoril (H, at home)
Model strength
Attack2nd
Defence3rd
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 16.2xGF: 16.3xGA: 4.6Pts − xPts: −0.2
Team page: Santa ClaraTeam page: Benfica

Squads

Known absentees and each side's players on the published finishing list of 40 (SAR, skill above replacement). Neither absences nor individual players feed this forecast: the model uses goals, shots on target and each squad's value. Absences recorded as of 11 October 2026.

Santa Clara
Unavailable· 10% of squad value
  • MTCentre-BackCruciate ligament tear3 M€
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season).

  • Gonçalo PaciênciaForward0.27
  • Vinícius LopesForward0.18
Benfica
Unavailable· 16% of squad value
  • Georgiy SudakovAttacking MidfieldAnkle sprain25 M€
  • Leandro BarreiroCentral MidfieldBack problems20 M€
  • Jakub KamińskiLeft WingerMuscle injury17 M€
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season).

  • Vangelis PavlidisForward0.43
  • BrumaForward0.22
  • Andreas SchjelderupForward0.22
  • Rafa SilvaMidfielder0.20

SAR: goals per 90 minutes above a replacement-level player, with extreme values capped.

Other fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 11 Oct · 15:30Rio Ave – NacionalRio Ave 44% · draw 26% · Nacional 30%
  2. Sun 11 Oct · 18:00Benfica – VitóriaBenfica 73% · draw 17% · Vitória 10%
  3. Sun 11 Oct · 20:30Arouca – EstrelaArouca 47% · draw 27% · Estrela 26%
  4. Mon 12 Oct · 20:15Famalicão – AlvercaFamalicão 45% · draw 28% · Alverca 27%
  5. Mon 19 Oct · 20:15 · postponed, matchday 2Sp. Braga – Gil VicenteSp. Braga 61% · draw 23% · Gil Vicente 16%
  6. Fri 23 Oct · 20:45Vitória – MarítimoVitória 57% · draw 25% · Marítimo 18%
  7. Sat 24 Oct · 15:30Estrela – Casa PiaEstrela 42% · draw 29% · Casa Pia 29%
  8. Sat 24 Oct · 18:00Alverca – AroucaAlverca 43% · draw 27% · Arouca 30%
  9. Sat 24 Oct · 20:30Gil Vicente – PortoGil Vicente 13% · draw 22% · Porto 65%
  10. Sun 25 Oct · 15:30Estoril – MoreirenseEstoril 50% · draw 26% · Moreirense 24%
  11. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Rio Ave – FamalicãoRio Ave 31% · draw 27% · Famalicão 42%
  12. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Nacional – Sp. BragaNacional 17% · draw 22% · Sp. Braga 61%
  13. Sun 25 Oct · 20:30Sporting – Ac. ViseuSporting 88% · draw 8.6% · Ac. Viseu 3.3%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · forecast of 11 October 2026