Data to understand Portugal.
About the projectBlack: what has already happened.Yellow: the model’s margin.Tick alone: one run, no margin.
Porto win the league in half of the simulated seasons
In 24,541 of 50,000 simulated seasons, in a forecast made after matchday 8. Sporting: +2.6 pp on the title since the previous forecast.
| Club | Title | vs MD7 | Points now and at the end | Now → end | Final place, 1st to 18th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 49%−2.4 pp | −2.4 pp | 24 now, 82 72–91 | 24 → 82 72–91 | |
| Sporting | 29%+2.6 pp | +2.6 pp | 18 now, 79 69–87 | 18 → 79 69–87 | |
| Benfica | 22%−0.1 pp | −0.1 pp | 19 now, 78 68–87 | 19 → 78 68–87 | |
| Sp. Braga | 0.1%−0.1 pp | −0.1 pp | 11 now, 61 51–72 | 11 → 61 51–72 |
what has already happenedthe model’s margin, 90%
Share of the 50,000 simulated seasons in which each club wins the title; final points: median and 90% interval. How the model works
Relegation17th or 18th
| Casa Pia | 53% | +5.4 pp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 43% | +4.1 pp | |
| Marítimo | 31% | +0.3 pp | |
| Estoril | 18% | +3.4 pp |
Next games
| Game, Lisbon time | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct · 20:15 · postponed, matchday 2Sp. Braga – Gil Vicente | 60% | 23% | 16% |
| Little at stake: neither club’s title or relegation chance moves by 5 percentage points. | |||
| Fri 23 Oct · 20:45Vitória – Marítimo | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Marítimo’s relegation chance: 19% if they win, 29% if they draw, 36% if they lose. | |||
| Sat 24 Oct · 15:30Estrela – Casa Pia | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Casa Pia’s relegation chance: 41% if they win, 54% if they draw, 60% if they lose. | |||
| Sat 24 Oct · 18:00Alverca – Arouca | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Little at stake: neither club’s title or relegation chance moves by 5 percentage points. | |||
| Sat 24 Oct · 20:30Gil Vicente – Porto | 13% | 22% | 65% |
| Porto’s title chance: 54% if they win, 42% if they draw, 37% if they lose. | |||
The 3,092 parishes of the 2021 Census, one by one
10,340,441 people and 4,154,571 households, generated by a model from the INE tables. Every parish answers the same eight questions, with its own quality tier.
one model run, no marginGenerated people and households, not real people, families, or addresses.
Your location is used only on your device, to find the nearest parish.
Elections
archiveThese are the forecasts as they were published before the vote, not the official results.
Presidential election 2026 · forecast of 6 February 2026 for the runoff
António José Seguro won the runoff in over 99% of the simulations
See forecast: Presidential election 2026Parliamentary election 2025 · forecast of 16 May 2025
AD won more seats than any other party in over 99% of the simulations
See forecast: Parliamentary election 2025