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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Rio Ave

Liga Portugal forecast for Rio Ave: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
15%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 36 (90% of simulations between 26 and 47)Most likely finish: 14th (11%)Attack: 10th · Defence: 15th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Rio Ave can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

5th
0.9%
6th
2.1%
7th
3.5%
8th
4.5%
9th
6.0%
10th
7.3%
11th
8.7%
12th
9.9%
13th
11%
14th
11%
15th
11%
16th
10%
17th
8.6%
18th
6.1%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th0.1%
5th0.9%
6th2.1%
7th3.5%
8th4.5%
9th6.0%
10th7.3%
11th8.7%
12th9.9%
13th11%
14th11%
15th11%
16th10%
17th8.6%
18th6.1%

14th is the most likely finish (11%); 77% of the simulations end between 10th and 17th.

Next match

What is at stake for Rio Ave against Famalicão

Rio Ave: relegation· Next match · Sun 25 Oct · 18:00 · at home

Now
15%
If they win
9.1%
If they draw
15%
If they lose
19%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Rio Ave winning this match: 31%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model14%
MD1 · 11 Aug29%
MD2 · 14 Aug29%
MD3 · 29 Aug23%
MD4 · 5 Sept22%
MD5 · 12 Sept28%
MD6 · 19 Sept30%
MD7 · 25 Sept23%
MD8 · 11 Oct15%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Rio Ave's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Rio Ave's relegation chance by 8 to 12 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Famalicão(H)
  2. Matchday 10Ac. Viseu(A)
  3. Matchday 11Sp. Braga(H)
  4. Matchday 12Arouca(A)
  5. Matchday 13Casa Pia(H)
  6. Matchday 14Marítimo(A)
The other 20 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Benfica(H)
  2. Matchday 16Vitória(A)
  3. Matchday 17Moreirense(H)
  4. Matchday 18Gil Vicente(H)
  5. Matchday 19Porto(A)
  6. Matchday 20Estoril(H)
  7. Matchday 21Sporting(A)
  8. Matchday 22Santa Clara(H)
  9. Matchday 23Estrela(A)
  10. Matchday 24Alverca(H)
  11. Matchday 25Nacional(A)
  12. Matchday 26Famalicão(A)
  13. Matchday 27Ac. Viseu(H)
  14. Matchday 28Sp. Braga(A)
  15. Matchday 29Arouca(H)
  16. Matchday 30Casa Pia(A)
  17. Matchday 31Marítimo(H)
  18. Matchday 32Benfica(A)
  19. Matchday 33Vitória(H)
  20. Matchday 34Moreirense(A)

Relegation · now

15%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

Other clubs' games, in the published round and postponed, whose result moves Rio Ave's relegation chance (now 15%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise. In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00 · matchday 9

    Nacional – Sp. Braga

    Rio Ave's relegation chance: 17% if Nacional win, 15% with a draw, 14% if Sp. Braga win.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Rio Ave and Moreirense

Who finishes with more points, Rio Ave or another club of your choice.

Rio Ave

Relegation: 15%Points (median): 36
Relegation: 15%Points (median): 36

Rio Ave finish with more points than Moreirense in 51% of the seasons; Moreirense, in 46%; they finish level on points in 3.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Rio Ave and Moreirense
Points gap at the end of the season: Rio Ave and Moreirense
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Rio Ave ahead by 34–44 pts00%
Rio Ave ahead by 23–33 pts20.7%
Rio Ave ahead by 12–22 pts3311%
Rio Ave ahead by 1–11 pts11739%
level on points113.7%
Moreirense ahead by 1–11 pts10936%
Moreirense ahead by 12–22 pts268.7%
Moreirense ahead by 23–33 pts10.3%
Moreirense ahead by 34–44 pts10.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data