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Rio Ave

Season 2026-27 · Matchday 5

Champion
0%
Top 3
0%
Relegation
26%
Expected points: 35 ± 7Most likely finish: 17th (14%)Attack:12thDefense:18th

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

5th
<1%
6th
2%
7th
2%
8th
3%
9th
4%
10th
5%
11th
6%
12th
7%
13th
9%
14th
10%
15th
11%
16th
13%
17th
14%
18th
13%

Probability over time

How relegation probability has evolved across matchdays.

Survival scenarios

Three possible paths to avoiding relegation, based on model simulations.

4 wins

3% of survival scenarios
74%
↓
96%
GW8NAC(H)Win
74%→81%
GW24ALV(H)Win
81%→88%
GW27ACV(H)Win
88%→93%
GW31MAR(H)Win
93%→96%
Also needs to happen
Ac. Viseu drops points vs RIO (GW27)

3 wins, 1 loss

3% of survival scenarios
74%
↓
88%
GW8NAC(H)Win
74%→81%
GW24ALV(H)Loss
81%→75%
GW27ACV(H)Win
75%→82%
GW31MAR(H)Win
82%→88%
Also needs to happen
Ac. Viseu drops points vs RIO (GW27)
Casa Pia drops points vs RIO (GW30)
Ac. Viseu drops points vs RIO (GW10)

3 wins, 1 loss

3% of survival scenarios
74%
↓
89%
GW8NAC(H)Loss
74%→66%
GW24ALV(H)Win
66%→75%
GW27ACV(H)Win
75%→83%
GW31MAR(H)Win
83%→89%
Also needs to happen
Ac. Viseu drops points vs RIO (GW27)
Ac. Viseu drops points vs RIO (GW10)
Ac. Viseu drops points vs VSC (GW23)

Build your scenario

Pick results and see how the probability changes match by match.

MD
W
D
L
Survival
6
Estrela(H)
74%
7
Alverca(A)
74%
8
Nacional(H)
74%
9
Famalicão(H)
74%
10
Ac. Viseu(A)
74%
11
Sp. Braga(H)
74%
12
Arouca(A)
74%
13
Casa Pia(H)
74%
14
Marítimo(A)
74%
15
Benfica(H)
74%
16
Vitória(A)
74%
17
Moreirense(H)
74%
18
Gil Vicente(H)
74%
19
Porto(A)
74%
20
Estoril(H)
74%
21
Sporting(A)
74%
22
Santa Clara(H)
74%
23
Estrela(A)
74%
24
Alverca(H)
74%
25
Nacional(A)
74%
26
Famalicão(A)
74%
27
Ac. Viseu(H)
74%
28
Sp. Braga(A)
74%
29
Arouca(H)
74%
30
Casa Pia(A)
74%
31
Marítimo(H)
74%
32
Benfica(A)
74%
33
Vitória(H)
74%
34
Moreirense(A)
74%

Decisive matches for Rio Ave

The remaining fixtures with the biggest impact on Rio Ave's survival probability.

Title race

Sporting
BenficavsSporting
GW16
—
Current: 55%·If they win: 66%·If they lose: 43%
PortovsSporting
GW12
—
Current: 55%·If they win: 66%·If they lose: 43%