Liga Portugal
Nacional
vs
Alverca
Matchday 6
Nacional
40%
Home win
Draw
27%
Draw
Alverca
33%
Away win
40%
27%
33%
Most likely outcome: Nacional (40%)

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Win Nacional
Nacional
Relegation9%−4.8 pp
Alverca
Relegation20%+4.6 pp
Draw
Nacional
Relegation15%+1.0 pp
Alverca
Relegation15%+0.4 pp
Win Alverca
Nacional
Relegation19%+5.0 pp
Alverca
Relegation9%−6.0 pp

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

NacionalHome
P: 5Pts: 4GD: -2
Form
L0-2@ Sporting
L2-3v Estrela
L0-1@ Vitória
D2-2@ Santa Clara
Model strength
Attack10th
Defence13th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 4.3xGF: 4.6xGA: 10.2Luck: -0.3
AlvercaAway
P: 5Pts: 2GD: -5
Form
L1-2v Sp. Braga
L1-3@ Sporting
D1-1v Santa Clara
L0-2@ Porto
Model strength
Attack11th
Defence10th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 4.4xGF: 5.5xGA: 9.6Luck: -2.4
Team page: NacionalTeam page: Alverca

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Nacional
Unavailable· 7% of squad value
  • UlissesCentre-Backunknown injury1 M€
  • Ivanildo FernandesCentre-Backunknown injury200 k€
Key players (SAR)
No players with enough minutes.
Alverca
Unavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
  • FigueiredoForward0.15
  • ChiquinhoForward0.13

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)

Other fixtures

Estoril — Arouca
43% · 25% · 31%
Ac. Viseu — Vitória
30% · 28% · 42%
Arouca — Santa Clara
36% · 30% · 34%
Sp. Braga — Estoril
64% · 20% · 16%
Casa Pia — Porto
9% · 19% · 72%
Moreirense — Marítimo
42% · 28% · 30%
Rio Ave — Estrela
43% · 28% · 30%
Benfica — Gil Vicente
74% · 17% · 10%
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-06