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Liga Portugal

Matchday 6 · played

Nacional – Alverca

The result and what the model gave before the match. The season forecast is on the Liga page.

Nacional
Final score: 1 to 3
Alverca
Saturday 12 September at 15:30

Before the match, the model gave these probabilities (published 5 September 2026, while matchday 5 was still being played):

Nacional win
40%
at home
Draw
27%
Alverca win
33%
Happened

Alverca won. Before the match, the model gave this outcome 33%.

What Nacional has leftWhat Alverca has left

Next fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Mon 19 Oct · 20:15 · postponed, matchday 2Sp. Braga – Gil VicenteSp. Braga 60% · draw 23% · Gil Vicente 16%
  2. Fri 23 Oct · 20:45Vitória – MarítimoVitória 57% · draw 25% · Marítimo 18%
  3. Sat 24 Oct · 15:30Estrela – Casa PiaEstrela 42% · draw 29% · Casa Pia 29%
  4. Sat 24 Oct · 18:00Alverca – AroucaAlverca 44% · draw 27% · Arouca 29%
  5. Sat 24 Oct · 20:30Gil Vicente – PortoGil Vicente 13% · draw 22% · Porto 65%
  6. Sun 25 Oct · 15:30Estoril – MoreirenseEstoril 50% · draw 26% · Moreirense 24%
  7. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Rio Ave – FamalicãoRio Ave 31% · draw 27% · Famalicão 41%
  8. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Nacional – Sp. BragaNacional 16% · draw 22% · Sp. Braga 62%
  9. Sun 25 Oct · 20:30Sporting – Ac. ViseuSporting 88% · draw 8.6% · Ac. Viseu 3.3%
  10. Mon 26 Oct · 18:45Santa Clara – BenficaSanta Clara 14% · draw 22% · Benfica 65%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · Next fixtures: forecast of 17 October 2026