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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Alverca

Liga Portugal forecast for Alverca: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
2.6%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 42 (90% of simulations between 32 and 53)Most likely finish: 8th (12%)Attack: 8th · Defence: 9th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Alverca can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
1.1%
5th
7.2%
6th
9.8%
7th
11%
8th
12%
9th
11%
10th
10%
11th
8.8%
12th
7.9%
13th
6.3%
14th
5.3%
15th
4.1%
16th
2.9%
17th
1.8%
18th
0.8%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd<0.1%
4th1.1%
5th7.2%
6th9.8%
7th11%
8th12%
9th11%
10th10%
11th8.8%
12th7.9%
13th6.3%
14th5.3%
15th4.1%
16th2.9%
17th1.8%
18th0.8%

8th is the most likely finish (12%); 70% of the simulations end between 6th and 12th.

Next match

What is at stake for Alverca against Famalicão

Alverca: relegation· Next match · Mon 12 Oct · 20:15 · away

Now
2.6%
If they win
1.5%
If they draw
2.4%
If they lose
3.4%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model8.4%
MD1 · 11 Aug11%
MD2 · 14 Aug11%
MD3 · 29 Aug13%
MD4 · 5 Sept13%
MD5 · 12 Sept9.9%
MD6 · 19 Sept10%
MD7 · 25 Sept3.0%
MD8 · 11 Oct2.6%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Alverca's relegation chance (now 2.6%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Alverca and Vitória

Who finishes with more points, Alverca or another club of your choice.

Alverca

Relegation: 2.6%Points (median): 42
Relegation: 2.9%Points (median): 42

Alverca finish with more points than Vitória in 46% of the seasons; Vitória, in 49%; they finish level on points in 4.3%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Alverca and Vitória
Points gap at the end of the season: Alverca and Vitória
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Alverca ahead by 25–32 pts20.7%
Alverca ahead by 17–24 pts134.3%
Alverca ahead by 9–16 pts4615%
Alverca ahead by 1–8 pts7826%
level on points134.3%
Vitória ahead by 1–8 pts9130%
Vitória ahead by 9–16 pts4916%
Vitória ahead by 17–24 pts82.7%
Vitória ahead by 25–32 pts00%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works

The games Alverca has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Mon 12 Oct · 20:15Famalicãoaway · MD8postponed
  2. Sat 24 Oct · 18:00Aroucahome · MD9
  3. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Benficaaway · MD10
  4. Sat 7 Novprovisional dateCasa Piahome · MD11
  5. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD12
  6. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD13
  7. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD14
  8. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateGil Vicentehome · MD15
  9. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateEstorilaway · MD16
  10. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateMarítimohome · MD17
  11. Sun 17 Janprovisional datePortohome · MD18
  12. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD19
  13. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateSportinghome · MD20
  14. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateSanta Claraaway · MD21
  15. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateSp. Bragaaway · MD22
  16. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateNacionalhome · MD23
  17. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD24
  18. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD25
  19. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD26
  20. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateBenficahome · MD27
  21. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD28
  22. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD29
  23. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD30
  24. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD31
  25. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD32
  26. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD33
  27. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data