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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Alverca

Liga Portugal forecast for Alverca: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 17 Oct, after matchday 8 · next forecast after matchday 9 (23–26 Oct)
Relegation
1.0%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 45 (90% of simulations between 34 and 56)Most likely finish: 6th (15%)Attack: 8th · Defence: 9th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Alverca can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
2.2%
5th
12%
6th
15%
7th
14%
8th
12%
9th
11%
10th
8.9%
11th
7.1%
12th
5.6%
13th
4.3%
14th
3.1%
15th
2.1%
16th
1.3%
17th
0.7%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd<0.1%
4th2.2%
5th12%
6th15%
7th14%
8th12%
9th11%
10th8.9%
11th7.1%
12th5.6%
13th4.3%
14th3.1%
15th2.1%
16th1.3%
17th0.7%
18th0.3%

6th is the most likely finish (15%); 64% of the simulations end between 5th and 9th.

Next match

What is at stake for Alverca against Arouca

Alverca: relegation· Next match · Sat 24 Oct · 18:00 · at home

Now
1.0%
If they win
0.4%
If they draw
1.2%
If they lose
1.7%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Alverca winning this match: 44%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model8.4%
MD1 · 11 Aug11%
MD2 · 14 Aug11%
MD3 · 29 Aug13%
MD4 · 5 Sept13%
MD5 · 12 Sept9.9%
MD6 · 19 Sept10%
MD7 · 25 Sept3.0%
MD8 · 17 Oct1.0%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 17 October 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Alverca's relegation chance (now 1.0%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Alverca and Gil Vicente

Who finishes with more points, Alverca or another club of your choice.

Alverca

Relegation: 1.0%Points (median): 45
Relegation: 1.2%Points (median): 44

Alverca finish with more points than Gil Vicente in 51% of the seasons; Gil Vicente, in 44%; they finish level on points in 5.0%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Alverca and Gil Vicente
Points gap at the end of the season: Alverca and Gil Vicente
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Alverca ahead by 25–32 pts20.7%
Alverca ahead by 17–24 pts82.7%
Alverca ahead by 9–16 pts4013%
Alverca ahead by 1–8 pts10234%
level on points155.0%
Gil Vicente ahead by 1–8 pts8629%
Gil Vicente ahead by 9–16 pts3913%
Gil Vicente ahead by 17–24 pts72.3%
Gil Vicente ahead by 25–32 pts10.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 17 OctHow the model works

The games Alverca has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Sat 24 Oct · 18:00Aroucahome · MD9
  2. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Benficaaway · MD10
  3. Sat 7 Nov · 18:00Casa Piahome · MD11
  4. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD12
  5. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD13
  6. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD14
  7. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateGil Vicentehome · MD15
  8. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateEstorilaway · MD16
  9. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateMarítimohome · MD17
  10. Sun 17 Janprovisional datePortohome · MD18
  11. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD19
  12. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateSportinghome · MD20
  13. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateSanta Claraaway · MD21
  14. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateSp. Bragaaway · MD22
  15. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateNacionalhome · MD23
  16. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD24
  17. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD25
  18. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD26
  19. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateBenficahome · MD27
  20. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD28
  21. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD29
  22. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD30
  23. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD31
  24. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD32
  25. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD33
  26. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 17 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data