Champion
0%
Top 3
0%
Relegation
15%
Expected points: 37 ± 7Most likely finish: 15th (9%)Attack:11thDefense:10th
Position distribution
Probability of finishing in each league position.
5th
2%
6th
4%
7th
5%
8th
6%
9th
7%
10th
8%
11th
8%
12th
9%
13th
9%
14th
9%
15th
9%
16th
9%
17th
9%
18th
6%
Probability over time
How relegation probability has evolved across matchdays.
Survival scenarios
Three possible paths to avoiding relegation, based on model simulations.
4 wins
4% of survival scenarios
85%
↓
98%
GW17MAR(H)Win
85%→90%
GW28CPA(A)Win
90%→94%
GW29ACV(H)Win
94%→96%
GW33EST(H)Win
96%→98%
Also needs to happen
Casa Pia drops points vs ALVAlverca (GW28)
3 wins, 1 loss
3% of survival scenarios
85%
↓
93%
GW17MAR(H)Win
85%→90%
GW28CPA(A)Win
90%→94%
GW29ACV(H)Win
94%→96%
GW33EST(H)Loss
96%→93%
Also needs to happen
Casa Pia drops points vs ALVAlverca (GW28)
Rio Ave drops points vs ALVAlverca (GW7)
3 wins, 1 loss
3% of survival scenarios
85%
↓
94%
GW17MAR(H)Win
85%→90%
GW28CPA(A)Loss
90%→85%
GW29ACV(H)Win
85%→91%
GW33EST(H)Win
91%→94%
Also needs to happen
Rio Ave drops points vs AROArouca (GW12)
Rio Ave drops points vs ALVAlverca (GW7)
Build your scenario
Pick results and see how the probability changes match by match.
MD
W
D
L
Survival
6
Nacional(A)85%
7
Rio Ave(H)85%
8
Famalicão(A)85%
9
Arouca(H)85%
10
Benfica(A)85%
11
Casa Pia(H)85%
12
Ac. Viseu(A)85%
13
Moreirense(H)85%
14
Vitória(A)85%
15
Gil Vicente(H)85%
16
Estoril(A)85%
17
Marítimo(H)85%
18
Porto(H)85%
19
Estrela(A)85%
20
Sporting(H)85%
21
Santa Clara(A)85%
22
Sp. Braga(A)85%
23
Nacional(H)85%
24
Rio Ave(A)85%
25
Famalicão(H)85%
26
Arouca(A)85%
27
Benfica(H)85%
28
Casa Pia(A)85%
29
Ac. Viseu(H)85%
30
Moreirense(A)85%
31
Vitória(H)85%
32
Gil Vicente(A)85%
33
Estoril(H)85%
34
Marítimo(A)85%
Alverca's matches affecting the race
Alverca's fixtures that influence the title race or relegation battle.
Relegation battle
Casa PiaAlvercavsCasa PiaGW11
—Current: 62%·If they win: 49%·If they lose: 68%
Casa PiavsAlvercaGW28
—Current: 62%·If they win: 51%·If they lose: 70%