Champion
0%
Top 3
0%
Relegation
14%
Expected points: 37 ± 7Most likely finish: 14th (10%)Attack:10thDefense:13th
Position distribution
Probability of finishing in each league position.
5th
2%
6th
4%
7th
5%
8th
6%
9th
7%
10th
8%
11th
8%
12th
9%
13th
9%
14th
10%
15th
10%
16th
9%
17th
8%
18th
6%
Probability over time
How relegation probability has evolved across matchdays.
Survival scenarios
Three possible paths to avoiding relegation, based on model simulations.
4 wins
3% of survival scenarios
86%
↓
99%
GW11ACV(H)Win
86%→91%
GW14CPA(A)Win
91%→95%
GW21EAM(A)Win
95%→97%
GW29MAR(H)Win
97%→99%
Also needs to happen
Casa Pia drops points vs NACNacional (GW14)
Rio Ave drops points vs NACNacional (GW8)
3 wins, 1 loss
3% of survival scenarios
86%
↓
95%
GW11ACV(H)Win
86%→91%
GW14CPA(A)Win
91%→95%
GW21EAM(A)Loss
95%→93%
GW29MAR(H)Win
93%→95%
Also needs to happen
Casa Pia drops points vs NACNacional (GW14)
Rio Ave drops points vs STCSanta Clara (GW22)
Rio Ave drops points vs NACNacional (GW8)
3 wins, 1 loss
3% of survival scenarios
86%
↓
97%
GW11ACV(H)Win
86%→91%
GW14CPA(A)Loss
91%→86%
GW21EAM(A)Win
86%→92%
GW29MAR(H)Win
92%→97%
Build your scenario
Pick results and see how the probability changes match by match.
MD
W
D
L
Survival
6
Alverca(H)86%
7
Famalicão(H)86%
8
Rio Ave(A)86%
9
Sp. Braga(H)86%
10
Arouca(A)86%
11
Ac. Viseu(H)86%
12
Marítimo(A)86%
13
Benfica(H)86%
14
Casa Pia(A)86%
15
Moreirense(H)86%
16
Porto(A)86%
17
Gil Vicente(H)86%
18
Santa Clara(H)86%
19
Estoril(A)86%
20
Vitória(H)86%
21
Estrela(A)86%
22
Sporting(H)86%
23
Alverca(A)86%
24
Famalicão(A)86%
25
Rio Ave(H)86%
26
Sp. Braga(A)86%
27
Arouca(H)86%
28
Ac. Viseu(A)86%
29
Marítimo(H)86%
30
Benfica(A)86%
31
Casa Pia(H)86%
32
Moreirense(A)86%
33
Porto(H)86%
34
Gil Vicente(A)86%
Nacional's matches affecting the race
Nacional's fixtures that influence the title race or relegation battle.
Relegation battle
Casa PiaNacionalvsCasa PiaGW31
—Current: 62%·If they win: 50%·If they lose: 69%
Casa PiavsNacionalGW14
—Current: 62%·If they win: 51%·If they lose: 70%