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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Nacional

Liga Portugal forecast for Nacional: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
44%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 31 (90% of simulations between 21 and 41)Most likely finish: 18th (25%)Attack: 12th · Defence: 16th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Nacional can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

7th
0.6%
8th
1.0%
9th
1.8%
10th
2.6%
11th
3.9%
12th
4.8%
13th
6.9%
14th
8.7%
15th
11%
16th
14%
17th
19%
18th
25%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th<0.1%
5th0.1%
6th0.3%
7th0.6%
8th1.0%
9th1.8%
10th2.6%
11th3.9%
12th4.8%
13th6.9%
14th8.7%
15th11%
16th14%
17th19%
18th25%

18th is the most likely finish (25%); 44% of the simulations end between 17th and 18th.

Next match

What is at stake for Nacional against Sp. Braga

Nacional: relegation· Next match · Sun 25 Oct · 18:00 · at home

Now
44%
If they win
30%
If they draw
40%
If they lose
48%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Nacional winning this match: 16%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model12%
MD1 · 11 Aug12%
MD2 · 14 Aug13%
MD3 · 29 Aug9.5%
MD4 · 5 Sept14%
MD5 · 12 Sept20%
MD6 · 19 Sept20%
MD7 · 25 Sept39%
MD8 · 11 Oct44%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Nacional's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Nacional's relegation chance by 16 to 22 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Sp. Braga(H)
  2. Matchday 10Arouca(A)
  3. Matchday 11Ac. Viseu(H)
  4. Matchday 12Marítimo(A)
  5. Matchday 13Benfica(H)
  6. Matchday 14Casa Pia(A)
The other 20 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Moreirense(H)
  2. Matchday 16Porto(A)
  3. Matchday 17Gil Vicente(H)
  4. Matchday 18Santa Clara(H)
  5. Matchday 19Estoril(A)
  6. Matchday 20Vitória(H)
  7. Matchday 21Estrela(A)
  8. Matchday 22Sporting(H)
  9. Matchday 23Alverca(A)
  10. Matchday 24Famalicão(A)
  11. Matchday 25Rio Ave(H)
  12. Matchday 26Sp. Braga(A)
  13. Matchday 27Arouca(H)
  14. Matchday 28Ac. Viseu(A)
  15. Matchday 29Marítimo(H)
  16. Matchday 30Benfica(A)
  17. Matchday 31Casa Pia(H)
  18. Matchday 32Moreirense(A)
  19. Matchday 33Porto(H)
  20. Matchday 34Gil Vicente(A)

Relegation · now

44%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Nacional's relegation chance (now 44%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Nacional and Casa Pia

Who finishes with more points, Nacional or another club of your choice.

Nacional

Relegation: 44%Points (median): 31
Relegation: 52%Points (median): 30

Nacional finish with more points than Casa Pia in 52% of the seasons; Casa Pia, in 43%; they finish level on points in 4.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Nacional and Casa Pia
Points gap at the end of the season: Nacional and Casa Pia
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Nacional ahead by 28–36 pts10.3%
Nacional ahead by 19–27 pts41.3%
Nacional ahead by 10–18 pts4114%
Nacional ahead by 1–9 pts11137%
level on points144.7%
Casa Pia ahead by 1–9 pts8328%
Casa Pia ahead by 10–18 pts4114%
Casa Pia ahead by 19–27 pts51.7%
Casa Pia ahead by 28–36 pts00%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data