Liga Portugal
Moreirense
vs
Marítimo
Matchday 6
Moreirense
42%
Home win
Draw
28%
Draw
Marítimo
30%
Away win
42%
28%
30%
Most likely outcome: Moreirense (42%)

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Win Moreirense
Moreirense
Relegation8%−4.5 pp
Marítimo
Relegation19%+4.4 pp
Draw
Moreirense
Relegation13%+1.3 pp
Marítimo
Relegation14%−0.3 pp
Win Marítimo
Moreirense
Relegation17%+5.3 pp
Marítimo
Relegation8%−6.1 pp

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

MoreirenseHome
P: 4Pts: 4GD: -4
Form
W1-0@ Casa Pia
L1-2@ Porto
D2-2v Sp. Braga
Model strength
Attack16th
Defence9th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 1.9xGF: 1.8xGA: 7.4Luck: +2.1
MarítimoAway
P: 5Pts: 7GD: -2
Form
L1-2@ Arouca
W1-0v Casa Pia
Model strength
Attack13th
Defence16th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 6.1xGF: 5.0xGA: 6.0Luck: +0.9
Team page: MoreirenseTeam page: Marítimo

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Moreirense
Unavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
  • Yan MaranhãoForward0.16
Marítimo
Unavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
No players with enough minutes.

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)

Other fixtures

Estoril — Arouca
43% · 25% · 31%
Ac. Viseu — Vitória
30% · 28% · 42%
Arouca — Santa Clara
36% · 30% · 34%
Sp. Braga — Estoril
64% · 20% · 16%
Casa Pia — Porto
9% · 19% · 72%
Nacional — Alverca
40% · 27% · 33%
Rio Ave — Estrela
43% · 28% · 30%
Benfica — Gil Vicente
74% · 17% · 10%
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-06