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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Moreirense

Liga Portugal forecast for Moreirense: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
15%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 36 (90% of simulations between 26 and 47)Most likely finish: 15th (11%)Attack: 15th · Defence: 12th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Moreirense can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

5th
0.9%
6th
2.0%
7th
3.1%
8th
4.6%
9th
5.9%
10th
7.3%
11th
8.6%
12th
9.8%
13th
11%
14th
11%
15th
11%
16th
11%
17th
8.9%
18th
5.7%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th0.1%
5th0.9%
6th2.0%
7th3.1%
8th4.6%
9th5.9%
10th7.3%
11th8.6%
12th9.8%
13th11%
14th11%
15th11%
16th11%
17th8.9%
18th5.7%

15th is the most likely finish (11%); 70% of the simulations end between 11th and 17th.

Next match

What is at stake for Moreirense against Estoril

Moreirense: relegation· Next match · Sun 25 Oct · 15:30 · away

Now
15%
If they win
8.1%
If they draw
13%
If they lose
18%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Moreirense winning this match: 24%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model11%
MD1 · 11 Aug14%
MD2 · 14 Aug14%
MD3 · 29 Aug18%
MD4 · 5 Sept12%
MD5 · 12 Sept15%
MD6 · 19 Sept9.6%
MD7 · 25 Sept12%
MD8 · 11 Oct15%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Moreirense's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Moreirense's relegation chance by 8 to 13 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Estoril(A)
  2. Matchday 10Estrela(H)
  3. Matchday 11Sporting(A)
  4. Matchday 12Santa Clara(H)
  5. Matchday 13Alverca(A)
  6. Matchday 14Famalicão(H)
The other 20 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Nacional(A)
  2. Matchday 16Ac. Viseu(H)
  3. Matchday 17Rio Ave(A)
  4. Matchday 18Sp. Braga(A)
  5. Matchday 19Arouca(H)
  6. Matchday 20Benfica(A)
  7. Matchday 21Casa Pia(H)
  8. Matchday 22Porto(H)
  9. Matchday 23Marítimo(A)
  10. Matchday 24Vitória(H)
  11. Matchday 25Gil Vicente(A)
  12. Matchday 26Estoril(H)
  13. Matchday 27Estrela(A)
  14. Matchday 28Sporting(H)
  15. Matchday 29Santa Clara(A)
  16. Matchday 30Alverca(H)
  17. Matchday 31Famalicão(A)
  18. Matchday 32Nacional(H)
  19. Matchday 33Ac. Viseu(A)
  20. Matchday 34Rio Ave(H)

Relegation · now

15%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Moreirense's relegation chance (now 15%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Moreirense and Rio Ave

Who finishes with more points, Moreirense or another club of your choice.

Moreirense

Relegation: 15%Points (median): 36
Relegation: 15%Points (median): 36

Moreirense finish with more points than Rio Ave in 46% of the seasons; Rio Ave, in 51%; they finish level on points in 3.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Moreirense and Rio Ave
Points gap at the end of the season: Moreirense and Rio Ave
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Moreirense ahead by 34–44 pts10.3%
Moreirense ahead by 23–33 pts10.3%
Moreirense ahead by 12–22 pts268.7%
Moreirense ahead by 1–11 pts10936%
level on points113.7%
Rio Ave ahead by 1–11 pts11739%
Rio Ave ahead by 12–22 pts3311%
Rio Ave ahead by 23–33 pts20.7%
Rio Ave ahead by 34–44 pts00%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data