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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Marítimo

Liga Portugal forecast for Marítimo: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
31%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 33 (90% of simulations between 23 and 43)Most likely finish: 17th (16%)Attack: 17th · Defence: 18th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Marítimo can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

6th
0.8%
7th
1.2%
8th
2.0%
9th
2.9%
10th
4.0%
11th
5.6%
12th
7.0%
13th
8.6%
14th
10%
15th
12%
16th
14%
17th
16%
18th
15%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th<0.1%
5th0.2%
6th0.8%
7th1.2%
8th2.0%
9th2.9%
10th4.0%
11th5.6%
12th7.0%
13th8.6%
14th10%
15th12%
16th14%
17th16%
18th15%

17th is the most likely finish (16%); 57% of the simulations end between 15th and 18th.

Next match

What is at stake for Marítimo against Vitória

Marítimo: relegation· Next match · Fri 23 Oct · 20:45 · away

Now
31%
If they win
19%
If they draw
29%
If they lose
35%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Marítimo winning this match: 18%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model42%
MD1 · 11 Aug16%
MD2 · 14 Aug15%
MD3 · 29 Aug13%
MD4 · 5 Sept13%
MD5 · 12 Sept14%
MD6 · 19 Sept18%
MD7 · 25 Sept31%
MD8 · 11 Oct31%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Marítimo's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Marítimo's relegation chance by 14 to 20 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Vitória(A)
  2. Matchday 10Santa Clara(H)
  3. Matchday 11Estoril(A)
  4. Matchday 12Nacional(H)
  5. Matchday 13Sporting(A)
  6. Matchday 14Rio Ave(H)
The other 20 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Estrela(A)
  2. Matchday 16Sp. Braga(H)
  3. Matchday 17Alverca(A)
  4. Matchday 18Casa Pia(A)
  5. Matchday 19Famalicão(H)
  6. Matchday 20Ac. Viseu(A)
  7. Matchday 21Arouca(H)
  8. Matchday 22Benfica(A)
  9. Matchday 23Moreirense(H)
  10. Matchday 24Gil Vicente(H)
  11. Matchday 25Porto(A)
  12. Matchday 26Vitória(H)
  13. Matchday 27Santa Clara(A)
  14. Matchday 28Estoril(H)
  15. Matchday 29Nacional(A)
  16. Matchday 30Sporting(H)
  17. Matchday 31Rio Ave(A)
  18. Matchday 32Estrela(H)
  19. Matchday 33Sp. Braga(A)
  20. Matchday 34Alverca(H)

Relegation · now

31%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Marítimo's relegation chance (now 31%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Marítimo and Estoril

Who finishes with more points, Marítimo or another club of your choice.

Marítimo

Relegation: 31%Points (median): 33
Relegation: 18%Points (median): 35

Marítimo finish with more points than Estoril in 36% of the seasons; Estoril, in 59%; they finish level on points in 4.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Marítimo and Estoril
Points gap at the end of the season: Marítimo and Estoril
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Marítimo ahead by 25–32 pts00%
Marítimo ahead by 17–24 pts31.0%
Marítimo ahead by 9–16 pts3311%
Marítimo ahead by 1–8 pts7224%
level on points144.7%
Estoril ahead by 1–8 pts9532%
Estoril ahead by 9–16 pts6522%
Estoril ahead by 17–24 pts134.3%
Estoril ahead by 25–32 pts51.7%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data