Champion
0%
Top 3
0%
Relegation
14%
Expected points: 38 ± 7Most likely finish: 15th (10%)Attack:13thDefense:16th
Position distribution
Probability of finishing in each league position.
5th
2%
6th
4%
7th
5%
8th
6%
9th
7%
10th
7%
11th
8%
12th
9%
13th
9%
14th
9%
15th
10%
16th
9%
17th
8%
18th
6%
Probability over time
How relegation probability has evolved across matchdays.
Survival scenarios
Three possible paths to avoiding relegation, based on model simulations.
3 wins, 1 loss
2% of survival scenarios
86%
↓
97%
GW12NAC(H)Win
86%→91%
GW18CPA(A)Loss
91%→87%
GW23MOR(H)Win
87%→93%
GW28EST(H)Win
93%→97%
3 wins, 1 loss
2% of survival scenarios
86%
↓
97%
GW12NAC(H)Win
86%→91%
GW18CPA(A)Win
91%→95%
GW23MOR(H)Win
95%→98%
GW28EST(H)Loss
98%→97%
Also needs to happen
Casa Pia drops points vs MARMarítimo (GW18)
Rio Ave drops points vs CPACasa Pia (GW30)
Casa Pia drops points vs NACNacional (GW14)
4 wins
2% of survival scenarios
86%
↓
99%
GW12NAC(H)Win
86%→91%
GW18CPA(A)Win
91%→95%
GW23MOR(H)Win
95%→98%
GW28EST(H)Win
98%→99%
Also needs to happen
Casa Pia drops points vs MARMarítimo (GW18)
Rio Ave drops points vs MARMarítimo (GW14)
Rio Ave drops points vs MARMarítimo (GW31)
Build your scenario
Pick results and see how the probability changes match by match.
MD
W
D
L
Survival
6
Moreirense(A)86%
7
Gil Vicente(A)86%
8
Porto(H)86%
9
Vitória(A)86%
10
Santa Clara(H)86%
11
Estoril(A)86%
12
Nacional(H)86%
13
Sporting(A)86%
14
Rio Ave(H)86%
15
Estrela(A)86%
16
Sp. Braga(H)86%
17
Alverca(A)86%
18
Casa Pia(A)86%
19
Famalicão(H)86%
20
Ac. Viseu(A)86%
21
Arouca(H)86%
22
Benfica(A)86%
23
Moreirense(H)86%
24
Gil Vicente(H)86%
25
Porto(A)86%
26
Vitória(H)86%
27
Santa Clara(A)86%
28
Estoril(H)86%
29
Nacional(A)86%
30
Sporting(H)86%
31
Rio Ave(A)86%
32
Estrela(H)86%
33
Sp. Braga(A)86%
34
Alverca(H)86%
Maritimo's matches affecting the race
Maritimo's fixtures that influence the title race or relegation battle.
Relegation battle
Casa PiaCasa PiavsMarítimoGW18
—Current: 62%·If they win: 52%·If they lose: 70%