FamalicãoSporting
Matchday 6
Famalicão
13%
Home win
Draw
20%
Draw
Sporting
66%
Away win
13%
20%
66%
Most likely outcome: Sporting (66%)
What is at stake
Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.
Win Famalicão
Famalicão
| Relegation | 1% | −2.1 pp |
Sporting
| Title | 42% | −12 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 97% | −1.7 pp |
Draw
Famalicão
| Relegation | 3% | −0.9 pp |
Sporting
| Title | 49% | −6.0 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 98% | −0.6 pp |
Win Sporting
Famalicão
| Relegation | 4% | +0.7 pp |
Sporting
| Title | 59% | +4.4 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 99% | +0.5 pp |
Change against the current probability, in percentage points.
How they arrive
Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.
FamalicãoHomeP: 5Pts: 3GD: -2
Form
D0-0v Gil Vicente
D2-2@ Estrela
L0-1@ Santa Clara
D1-1@ Estoril
Model strength
Attack7th
Defence6th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 6.6xGF: 5.4xGA: 5.4Luck: -3.6
SportingAwayP: 5Pts: 13GD: +9
Form
W2-0v Nacional
W3-1v Alverca
W4-0@ Rio Ave
W3-2v Vitória
D2-2@ Estrela
Model strength
Attack1st
Defence2nd
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 11.3xGF: 10.7xGA: 3.2Luck: +1.7
Squads
Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.
FamalicãoUnavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
- Óscar ArandaForward0.18
SportingUnavailable· 4% of squad value
- João SimõesCentral MidfieldMetatarsal fracture15 M€
- Salvador BlopaRight-BackMuscle injury2.5 M€
Key players (SAR)
- Pedro GonçalvesForward0.35
- Fotis IoannidisForward0.27
- Rodrigo ZalazarMidfielder0.16
- Daniel BragançaMidfielder0.15
SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-06