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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Famalicão

Liga Portugal forecast for Famalicão: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 17 Oct, after matchday 8 · next forecast after matchday 9 (23–26 Oct)
Relegation
2.3%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 42 (90% of simulations between 32 and 53)Most likely finish: 8th (12%)Attack: 7th · Defence: 7th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Famalicão can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
1.1%
5th
6.7%
6th
10%
7th
12%
8th
12%
9th
11%
10th
10%
11th
9.3%
12th
7.7%
13th
6.3%
14th
5.2%
15th
3.8%
16th
2.6%
17th
1.6%
18th
0.7%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th1.1%
5th6.7%
6th10%
7th12%
8th12%
9th11%
10th10%
11th9.3%
12th7.7%
13th6.3%
14th5.2%
15th3.8%
16th2.6%
17th1.6%
18th0.7%

8th is the most likely finish (12%); 64% of the simulations end between 6th and 11th.

Next match

What is at stake for Famalicão against Rio Ave

Famalicão: relegation· Next match · Sun 25 Oct · 18:00 · away

Now
2.3%
If they win
1.0%
If they draw
2.5%
If they lose
3.9%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Famalicão winning this match: 41%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model0.8%
MD1 · 11 Aug1.4%
MD2 · 14 Aug1.5%
MD3 · 29 Aug2.9%
MD4 · 5 Sept3.6%
MD5 · 12 Sept3.7%
MD6 · 19 Sept3.0%
MD7 · 25 Sept1.4%
MD8 · 17 Oct2.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 17 October 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Famalicão's relegation chance (now 2.3%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Famalicão and Vitória

Who finishes with more points, Famalicão or another club of your choice.

Famalicão

Relegation: 2.3%Points (median): 42
Relegation: 3.0%Points (median): 42

Famalicão finish with more points than Vitória in 51% of the seasons; Vitória, in 44%; they finish level on points in 5.0%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Famalicão and Vitória
Points gap at the end of the season: Famalicão and Vitória
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Famalicão ahead by 22–28 pts31.0%
Famalicão ahead by 15–21 pts155.0%
Famalicão ahead by 8–14 pts4515%
Famalicão ahead by 1–7 pts8930%
level on points155.0%
Vitória ahead by 1–7 pts7425%
Vitória ahead by 8–14 pts4214%
Vitória ahead by 15–21 pts134.3%
Vitória ahead by 22–28 pts41.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 17 OctHow the model works

The games Famalicão has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Rio Aveaway · MD9
  2. Sun 1 Nov · 20:30Sp. Bragaaway · MD10
  3. Fri 6 Nov · 20:45Aroucahome · MD11
  4. Mon 30 Novprovisional dateBenficaaway · MD12
  5. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD13
  6. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD14
  7. Sun 20 Decprovisional datePortohome · MD15
  8. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD16
  9. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD17
  10. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD18
  11. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD19
  12. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateSanta Clarahome · MD20
  13. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD21
  14. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateEstrelahome · MD22
  15. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateSportingaway · MD23
  16. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateNacionalhome · MD24
  17. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateAlvercaaway · MD25
  18. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateRio Avehome · MD26
  19. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateSp. Bragahome · MD27
  20. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD28
  21. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateBenficahome · MD29
  22. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD30
  23. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD31
  24. Sun 2 Mayprovisional datePortoaway · MD32
  25. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateCasa Piahome · MD33
  26. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 17 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data