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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Famalicão

Liga Portugal forecast for Famalicão: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
1.2%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 44 (90% of simulations between 34 and 55)Most likely finish: 6th (15%)Attack: 7th · Defence: 6th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Famalicão can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
2.1%
5th
12%
6th
15%
7th
14%
8th
12%
9th
11%
10th
9.0%
11th
7.2%
12th
5.7%
13th
4.4%
14th
3.4%
15th
2.4%
16th
1.5%
17th
0.8%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd<0.1%
4th2.1%
5th12%
6th15%
7th14%
8th12%
9th11%
10th9.0%
11th7.2%
12th5.7%
13th4.4%
14th3.4%
15th2.4%
16th1.5%
17th0.8%
18th0.4%

6th is the most likely finish (15%); 63% of the simulations end between 5th and 9th.

Next match

What is at stake for Famalicão against Alverca

Famalicão: relegation· Next match · Mon 12 Oct · 20:15 · at home

Now
1.2%
If they win
0.6%
If they draw
1.3%
If they lose
2.0%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model0.8%
MD1 · 11 Aug1.4%
MD2 · 14 Aug1.5%
MD3 · 29 Aug2.9%
MD4 · 5 Sept3.6%
MD5 · 12 Sept3.7%
MD6 · 19 Sept3.0%
MD7 · 25 Sept1.4%
MD8 · 11 Oct1.2%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Famalicão's relegation chance (now 1.2%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Famalicão and Gil Vicente

Who finishes with more points, Famalicão or another club of your choice.

Famalicão

Relegation: 1.2%Points (median): 44
Relegation: 1.2%Points (median): 44

Famalicão finish with more points than Gil Vicente in 43% of the seasons; Gil Vicente, in 53%; they finish level on points in 4.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Famalicão and Gil Vicente
Points gap at the end of the season: Famalicão and Gil Vicente
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Famalicão ahead by 25–32 pts10.3%
Famalicão ahead by 17–24 pts62.0%
Famalicão ahead by 9–16 pts3813%
Famalicão ahead by 1–8 pts8328%
level on points144.7%
Gil Vicente ahead by 1–8 pts11037%
Gil Vicente ahead by 9–16 pts3411%
Gil Vicente ahead by 17–24 pts124.0%
Gil Vicente ahead by 25–32 pts20.7%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works

The games Famalicão has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Mon 12 Oct · 20:15Alvercahome · MD8postponed
  2. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00Rio Aveaway · MD9
  3. Sun 1 Nov · 20:30Sp. Bragaaway · MD10
  4. Fri 6 Novprovisional dateAroucahome · MD11
  5. Mon 30 Novprovisional dateBenficaaway · MD12
  6. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD13
  7. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD14
  8. Sun 20 Decprovisional datePortohome · MD15
  9. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD16
  10. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD17
  11. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD18
  12. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD19
  13. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateSanta Clarahome · MD20
  14. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD21
  15. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateEstrelahome · MD22
  16. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateSportingaway · MD23
  17. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateNacionalhome · MD24
  18. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateAlvercaaway · MD25
  19. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateRio Avehome · MD26
  20. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateSp. Bragahome · MD27
  21. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD28
  22. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateBenficahome · MD29
  23. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD30
  24. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD31
  25. Sun 2 Mayprovisional datePortoaway · MD32
  26. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateCasa Piahome · MD33
  27. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data