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Sporting

Season 2026-27 · Matchday 5

Champion
55%
Top 3
98%
Relegation
0%
Expected points: 80 ± 6Most likely finish: 1st (55%)Attack:1stDefense:2nd

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

1st
55%
2nd
29%
3rd
15%
4th
2%

Probability over time

How champion probability has evolved across matchdays.

Victory scenarios

Three possible paths to the title, from most likely to least likely. Each scenario shows what needs to happen — and what rivals must do.

4 wins

8% of title scenarios
55%
↓
86%
GW6FAM(A)Win
55%→59%
GW8BRA(A)Win
59%→65%
GW12POR(A)Win
65%→75%
GW16SLB(A)Win
75%→86%
Also needs to happen
Benfica drops points vs SCP (GW16)
Porto drops points vs SCP (GW12)
Porto drops points vs SCP (GW29)

3 wins, 1 loss

6% of title scenarios
55%
↓
66%
GW6FAM(A)Win
55%→59%
GW8BRA(A)Win
59%→65%
GW12POR(A)Loss
65%→55%
GW16SLB(A)Win
55%→66%
Also needs to happen
Benfica drops points vs SCP (GW16)
Porto drops points vs SCP (GW29)
Benfica drops points vs SCP (GW33)

3 wins, 1 loss

6% of title scenarios
55%
↓
65%
GW6FAM(A)Win
55%→59%
GW8BRA(A)Win
59%→65%
GW12POR(A)Win
65%→75%
GW16SLB(A)Loss
75%→65%
Also needs to happen
Porto drops points vs SCP (GW12)
Benfica drops points vs SCP (GW33)
Benfica drops points vs MOR (GW3)

Build your scenario

Pick results and see how the probability changes match by match.

MD
W
D
L
Champion
6
Famalicão(A)
55%
7
Arouca(H)
55%
8
Sp. Braga(A)
55%
9
Ac. Viseu(H)
55%
10
Casa Pia(A)
55%
11
Moreirense(H)
55%
12
Porto(A)
55%
13
Marítimo(H)
55%
14
Gil Vicente(A)
55%
15
Estoril(H)
55%
16
Benfica(A)
55%
17
Santa Clara(H)
55%
18
Estrela(H)
55%
19
Vitória(A)
55%
20
Alverca(A)
55%
21
Rio Ave(H)
55%
22
Nacional(A)
55%
23
Famalicão(H)
55%
24
Arouca(A)
55%
25
Sp. Braga(H)
55%
26
Ac. Viseu(A)
55%
27
Casa Pia(H)
55%
28
Moreirense(A)
55%
29
Porto(H)
55%
30
Marítimo(A)
55%
31
Gil Vicente(H)
55%
32
Estoril(A)
55%
33
Benfica(H)
55%
34
Santa Clara(A)
55%

Decisive matches for Sporting CP

The remaining fixtures with the biggest impact on Sporting CP's title probability.

Title race

Sporting
SportingvsBenfica
GW33
—
Current: 55%·If they win: 64%·If they lose: 40%
SportingvsPorto
GW29
—
Current: 55%·If they win: 64%·If they lose: 40%
BenficavsSporting
GW16
—
Current: 55%·If they win: 66%·If they lose: 43%
PortovsSporting
GW12
—
Current: 55%·If they win: 66%·If they lose: 43%
SportingvsCasa Pia
GW27
—
Current: 55%·If they win: 56%·If they lose: 40%
Casa PiavsSporting
GW10
—
Current: 55%·If they win: 57%·If they lose: 41%

Relegation battle

Casa Pia
Rio AvevsCasa Pia
GW13
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 50%·If they lose: 69%
AlvercavsCasa Pia
GW11
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 49%·If they lose: 68%
Casa PiavsEstrela
GW26
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 52%·If they lose: 71%
EstorilvsCasa Pia
GW7
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 49%·If they lose: 68%
Casa PiavsEstoril
GW24
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 51%·If they lose: 69%
Casa PiavsAc. Viseu
GW34
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 52%·If they lose: 71%
Casa PiavsMarítimo
GW18
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 52%·If they lose: 70%
Casa PiavsVitória
GW22
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 51%·If they lose: 68%
Santa ClaravsCasa Pia
GW25
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 49%·If they lose: 67%
Casa PiavsFamalicão
GW16
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 51%·If they lose: 68%