Liga PortugalMatchday in progress
Estoril
vs
Arouca
Matchday 5 · Saturday 5 September at 23:00
Estoril
43%
Home win
Draw
25%
Draw
Arouca
31%
Away win
43%
25%
31%
Most likely outcome: Estoril (43%)

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Win Estoril
Estoril
Relegation8%−4.1 pp
Arouca
Relegation2%+0.7 pp
Draw
Estoril
Relegation14%+0.9 pp
Arouca
Relegation1%−0.2 pp
Win Arouca
Estoril
Relegation18%+5.0 pp
Arouca
Relegation1%−0.9 pp

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

EstorilHome
P: 4Pts: 1GD: -5
Form
L1-2@ Benfica
L0-2v Rio Ave
D1-1v Famalicão
Model strength
Attack5th
Defence12th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 3.5xGF: 3.2xGA: 6.3Luck: -2.5
AroucaAway
P: 4Pts: 9GD: +4
Form
L0-2@ Porto
W2-1v Marítimo
W1-0@ Vitória
Model strength
Attack8th
Defence11th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 5.1xGF: 4.9xGA: 6.3Luck: +3.9
Team page: EstorilTeam page: Arouca

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Estoril
Unavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
  • Yanis BegraouiForward0.30
  • André LacximicantForward0.12
  • João CarvalhoForward0.11
Arouca
Unavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
  • Ivan BarberoForward0.26
  • Dylan NandínForward0.12

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)

Other fixtures

Ac. Viseu — Vitória
30% · 28% · 42%
Arouca — Santa Clara
36% · 30% · 34%
Sp. Braga — Estoril
64% · 20% · 16%
Casa Pia — Porto
9% · 19% · 72%
Moreirense — Marítimo
42% · 28% · 30%
Nacional — Alverca
40% · 27% · 33%
Rio Ave — Estrela
43% · 28% · 30%
Benfica — Gil Vicente
74% · 17% · 10%
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-06