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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Estoril

Liga Portugal forecast for Estoril: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
18%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 35 (90% of simulations between 25 and 46)Most likely finish: 15th (11%)Attack: 5th · Defence: 10th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Estoril can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

5th
0.8%
6th
1.8%
7th
2.9%
8th
4.2%
9th
5.6%
10th
7.0%
11th
7.9%
12th
9.3%
13th
10%
14th
11%
15th
11%
16th
11%
17th
10%
18th
7.7%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th0.1%
5th0.8%
6th1.8%
7th2.9%
8th4.2%
9th5.6%
10th7.0%
11th7.9%
12th9.3%
13th10%
14th11%
15th11%
16th11%
17th10%
18th7.7%

15th is the most likely finish (11%); 78% of the simulations end between 11th and 18th.

Next match

What is at stake for Estoril against Moreirense

Estoril: relegation· Next match · Sun 25 Oct · 15:30 · at home

Now
18%
If they win
13%
If they draw
20%
If they lose
26%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Estoril winning this match: 50%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model4.1%
MD1 · 11 Aug7.1%
MD2 · 14 Aug6.9%
MD3 · 29 Aug12%
MD4 · 5 Sept12%
MD5 · 12 Sept14%
MD6 · 19 Sept16%
MD7 · 25 Sept14%
MD8 · 11 Oct18%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Estoril's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Estoril's relegation chance by 10 to 15 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Moreirense(H)
  2. Matchday 10Porto(A)
  3. Matchday 11Marítimo(H)
  4. Matchday 12Gil Vicente(A)
  5. Matchday 13Vitória(H)
  6. Matchday 14Santa Clara(H)
The other 20 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Sporting(A)
  2. Matchday 16Alverca(H)
  3. Matchday 17Estrela(A)
  4. Matchday 18Famalicão(A)
  5. Matchday 19Nacional(H)
  6. Matchday 20Rio Ave(A)
  7. Matchday 21Benfica(H)
  8. Matchday 22Arouca(A)
  9. Matchday 23Sp. Braga(H)
  10. Matchday 24Casa Pia(A)
  11. Matchday 25Ac. Viseu(H)
  12. Matchday 26Moreirense(A)
  13. Matchday 27Porto(H)
  14. Matchday 28Marítimo(A)
  15. Matchday 29Gil Vicente(H)
  16. Matchday 30Vitória(A)
  17. Matchday 31Santa Clara(A)
  18. Matchday 32Sporting(H)
  19. Matchday 33Alverca(A)
  20. Matchday 34Estrela(H)

Relegation · now

18%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Estoril's relegation chance (now 18%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Estoril and Rio Ave

Who finishes with more points, Estoril or another club of your choice.

Estoril

Relegation: 18%Points (median): 35
Relegation: 15%Points (median): 36

Estoril finish with more points than Rio Ave in 41% of the seasons; Rio Ave, in 55%; they finish level on points in 4.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Estoril and Rio Ave
Points gap at the end of the season: Estoril and Rio Ave
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Estoril ahead by 22–28 pts20.7%
Estoril ahead by 15–21 pts124.0%
Estoril ahead by 8–14 pts3211%
Estoril ahead by 1–7 pts7625%
level on points144.7%
Rio Ave ahead by 1–7 pts8930%
Rio Ave ahead by 8–14 pts5518%
Rio Ave ahead by 15–21 pts165.3%
Rio Ave ahead by 22–28 pts41.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data