Champion
0%
Top 3
0%
Relegation
13%
Expected points: 38 ± 7Most likely finish: 15th (9%)Attack:5thDefense:12th
Position distribution
Probability of finishing in each league position.
5th
3%
6th
4%
7th
6%
8th
7%
9th
7%
10th
8%
11th
8%
12th
9%
13th
9%
14th
9%
15th
9%
16th
8%
17th
7%
18th
5%
Probability over time
How relegation probability has evolved across matchdays.
Survival scenarios
Three possible paths to avoiding relegation, based on model simulations.
4 wins
5% of survival scenarios
87%
↓
99%
GW9MOR(H)Win
87%→92%
GW16ALV(H)Win
92%→95%
GW19NAC(H)Win
95%→97%
GW34EAM(H)Win
97%→99%
3 wins, 1 loss
3% of survival scenarios
87%
↓
95%
GW9MOR(H)Win
87%→92%
GW16ALV(H)Loss
92%→88%
GW19NAC(H)Win
88%→92%
GW34EAM(H)Win
92%→95%
3 wins, 1 loss
3% of survival scenarios
87%
↓
95%
GW9MOR(H)Win
87%→92%
GW16ALV(H)Win
92%→95%
GW19NAC(H)Loss
95%→91%
GW34EAM(H)Win
91%→95%
Also needs to happen
Rio Ave drops points vs ACVAc. Viseu (GW27)
Build your scenario
Pick results and see how the probability changes match by match.
MD
W
D
L
Survival
5
Arouca(H)87%
6
Sp. Braga(A)87%
7
Casa Pia(H)87%
8
Ac. Viseu(A)87%
9
Moreirense(H)87%
10
Porto(A)87%
11
Marítimo(H)87%
12
Gil Vicente(A)87%
13
Vitória(H)87%
14
Santa Clara(H)87%
15
Sporting(A)87%
16
Alverca(H)87%
17
Estrela(A)87%
18
Famalicão(A)87%
19
Nacional(H)87%
20
Rio Ave(A)87%
21
Benfica(H)87%
22
Arouca(A)87%
23
Sp. Braga(H)87%
24
Casa Pia(A)87%
25
Ac. Viseu(H)87%
26
Moreirense(A)87%
27
Porto(H)87%
28
Marítimo(A)87%
29
Gil Vicente(H)87%
30
Vitória(A)87%
31
Santa Clara(A)87%
32
Sporting(H)87%
33
Alverca(A)87%
34
Estrela(H)87%
Decisive matches for Estoril
The remaining fixtures with the biggest impact on Estoril's survival probability.
Title race
SportingSportingvsPortoGW29
—Current: 55%·If they win: 64%·If they lose: 40%