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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Arouca

Liga Portugal forecast for Arouca: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 17 Oct, after matchday 8 · next forecast after matchday 9 (23–26 Oct)

Champion, top 3 and relegation: below 1% in the simulations (relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted).

Expected points: 45 (90% of simulations between 35 and 56)Most likely finish: 6th (15%)Attack: 9th · Defence: 11th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Arouca can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
2.4%
5th
12%
6th
15%
7th
14%
8th
13%
9th
11%
10th
9.1%
11th
7.2%
12th
5.5%
13th
3.9%
14th
3.0%
15th
1.8%
16th
1.0%
17th
0.7%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd<0.1%
4th2.4%
5th12%
6th15%
7th14%
8th13%
9th11%
10th9.1%
11th7.2%
12th5.5%
13th3.9%
14th3.0%
15th1.8%
16th1.0%
17th0.7%
18th0.2%

6th is the most likely finish (15%); 65% of the simulations end between 5th and 9th.

Next match

What is at stake for Arouca

Next match · Sat 24 Oct · 18:00 · away

Win
29%
Draw
27%
Lose
44%

This match's probabilities, from Arouca's side. Neither the title nor relegation reaches 1% for Arouca in this forecast.

Match analysis

The games Arouca has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Sat 24 Oct · 18:00Alvercaaway · MD9
  2. Sun 1 Nov · 15:30Nacionalhome · MD10
  3. Fri 6 Nov · 20:45Famalicãoaway · MD11
  4. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateRio Avehome · MD12
  5. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateSp. Bragaaway · MD13
  6. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD14
  7. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateCasa Piahome · MD15
  8. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD16
  9. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateBenficahome · MD17
  10. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD18
  11. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD19
  12. Sun 31 Janprovisional datePortohome · MD20
  13. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD21
  14. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD22
  15. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateSanta Claraaway · MD23
  16. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateSportinghome · MD24
  17. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD25
  18. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateAlvercahome · MD26
  19. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateNacionalaway · MD27
  20. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD28
  21. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD29
  22. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateSp. Bragahome · MD30
  23. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD31
  24. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD32
  25. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateGil Vicentehome · MD33
  26. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateBenficaaway · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 17 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data