Casa PiaPorto
Matchday 6
Casa Pia
9%
Home win
Draw
19%
Draw
Porto
72%
Away win
9%
19%
72%
Most likely outcome: Porto (72%)
What is at stake
Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.
Win Casa Pia
Casa Pia
| Relegation | 48% | −14 pp |
Porto
| Title | 14% | −7.9 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 88% | −4.8 pp |
Draw
Casa Pia
| Relegation | 58% | −4.1 pp |
Porto
| Title | 17% | −5.4 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 91% | −2.0 pp |
Win Porto
Casa Pia
| Relegation | 65% | +2.7 pp |
Porto
| Title | 25% | +2.4 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 94% | +1.1 pp |
Change against the current probability, in percentage points.
How they arrive
Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.
Casa PiaHomeP: 5Pts: 1GD: -11
Form
D0-0@ Vitória
L0-1v Moreirense
L0-2@ Gil Vicente
L0-1@ Marítimo
Model strength
Attack18th
Defence17th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 3.7xGF: 2.7xGA: 8.5Luck: -2.7
PortoAwayP: 5Pts: 15GD: +10
Form
W3-0@ Ac. Viseu
W2-1v Moreirense
W2-0v Arouca
W2-0v Alverca
Model strength
Attack3rd
Defence1st
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 11.2xGF: 11.9xGA: 4.5Luck: +3.8
Squads
Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.
Casa PiaUnavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
- CassianoForward0.20
- Henrique AraújoForward0.11
PortoUnavailable· 15% of squad value
- Samu AghehowaCentre-ForwardCruciate ligament tear45 M€
- Oskar PietuszewskiLeft WingerMuscle injury25 M€
- Vasco SousaCentral MidfieldBroken fibula2 M€
Key players (SAR)
- Samu AghehowaForwardout0.45
- William GomesForward0.25
- Borja SainzForward0.14
- Oskar PietuszewskiForwardout0.14
SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-06