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Porto

Season 2026-27 · Matchday 5

Champion
22%
Top 3
93%
Relegation
0%
Expected points: 76 ± 7Most likely finish: 3rd (36%)Attack:3rdDefense:1st

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

1st
22%
2nd
34%
3rd
36%
4th
7%

Probability over time

How champion probability has evolved across matchdays.

Victory scenarios

Three possible paths to the title, from most likely to least likely. Each scenario shows what needs to happen — and what rivals must do.

4 wins

8% of title scenarios
22%
↓
57%
GW24SLB(A)Win
22%→32%
GW29SCP(A)Win
32%→46%
GW30STC(H)Win
46%→51%
GW34BRA(H)Win
51%→57%
Also needs to happen
Sporting drops points vs POR (GW29)
Benfica drops points vs POR (GW24)
Sporting drops points vs POR (GW12)

3 wins, 1 loss

8% of title scenarios
22%
↓
31%
GW24SLB(A)Win
22%→32%
GW29SCP(A)Loss
32%→23%
GW30STC(H)Win
23%→26%
GW34BRA(H)Win
26%→31%
Also needs to happen
Benfica drops points vs POR (GW24)
Sporting drops points vs POR (GW12)
Benfica drops points vs POR (GW7)

3 wins, 1 draw

6% of title scenarios
22%
↓
44%
GW24SLB(A)Win
22%→32%
GW29SCP(A)Draw
32%→33%
GW30STC(H)Win
33%→37%
GW34BRA(H)Win
37%→44%
Also needs to happen
Sporting drops points vs POR (GW29)
Benfica drops points vs POR (GW24)
Sporting drops points vs POR (GW12)

Build your scenario

Pick results and see how the probability changes match by match.

MD
W
D
L
Champion
6
Casa Pia(A)
22%
7
Benfica(H)
22%
8
Marítimo(A)
22%
9
Gil Vicente(A)
22%
10
Estoril(H)
22%
11
Vitória(A)
22%
12
Sporting(H)
22%
13
Santa Clara(A)
22%
14
Estrela(H)
22%
15
Famalicão(A)
22%
16
Nacional(H)
22%
17
Sp. Braga(A)
22%
18
Alverca(A)
22%
19
Rio Ave(H)
22%
20
Arouca(A)
22%
21
Ac. Viseu(H)
22%
22
Moreirense(A)
22%
23
Casa Pia(H)
22%
24
Benfica(A)
22%
25
Marítimo(H)
22%
26
Gil Vicente(H)
22%
27
Estoril(A)
22%
28
Vitória(H)
22%
29
Sporting(A)
22%
30
Santa Clara(H)
22%
31
Estrela(A)
22%
32
Famalicão(H)
22%
33
Nacional(A)
22%
34
Sp. Braga(H)
22%

Decisive matches for Porto

The remaining fixtures with the biggest impact on Porto's title probability.

Title race

Porto
PortovsCasa Pia
GW23
—
Current: 22%·If they win: 24%·If they lose: 14%

Relegation battle

Casa Pia
NacionalvsCasa Pia
GW31
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 50%·If they lose: 69%
Sp. BragavsCasa Pia
GW29
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 46%·If they lose: 65%
EstrelavsCasa Pia
GW9
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 50%·If they lose: 69%
MoreirensevsCasa Pia
GW21
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 50%·If they lose: 69%
Casa PiavsNacional
GW14
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 51%·If they lose: 70%
PortovsCasa Pia
GW23
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 46%·If they lose: 64%
Casa PiavsArouca
GW32
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 52%·If they lose: 69%