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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Porto

Liga Portugal forecast for Porto: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Champion
49%
Top 3
99%

Relegation: below 1% in the simulations (17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted).

Expected points: 82 (90% of simulations between 72 and 91)Most likely finish: 1st (49%)Attack: 3rd · Defence: 1st (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Porto can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

1st
49%
2nd
30%
3rd
19%
4th
0.9%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st49%
2nd30%
3rd19%
4th0.9%
5th<0.1%
6th0%
7th0%
8th0%
9th0%
10th0%
11th0%
12th0%
13th0%
14th0%
15th0%
16th0%
17th0%
18th0%

Next match

What is at stake for Porto against Gil Vicente

Porto: title· Next match · Sat 24 Oct · 20:30 · away

Now
49%
If they win
54%
If they draw
42%
If they lose
37%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Porto winning this match: 65%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of winning the title, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Champion (%)
Champion (%)
ForecastChampion (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model16%
MD1 · 11 Aug18%
MD2 · 14 Aug18%
MD3 · 29 Aug19%
MD4 · 5 Sept24%
MD5 · 12 Sept22%
MD6 · 19 Sept26%
MD7 · 25 Sept51%
MD8 · 11 Oct49%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Porto's remaining games and see how the chance of winning the title moves, game by game. How it works

Marked as decisive: the 3 games where winning or losing moves Porto's title chance most, 26 to 27 percentage points between one result and the other; each of the others moves it 15 to 19.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Gil Vicente(A)
  2. Matchday 10Estoril(H)
  3. Matchday 11Vitória(A)
  4. Matchday 12Sporting(H)decisive
  5. Matchday 13Santa Clara(A)
  6. Matchday 14Estrela(H)
  7. Matchday 24Benfica(A)decisive
  8. Matchday 29Sporting(A)decisive
The other 18 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Famalicão(A)
  2. Matchday 16Nacional(H)
  3. Matchday 17Sp. Braga(A)
  4. Matchday 18Alverca(A)
  5. Matchday 19Rio Ave(H)
  6. Matchday 20Arouca(A)
  7. Matchday 21Ac. Viseu(H)
  8. Matchday 22Moreirense(A)
  9. Matchday 23Casa Pia(H)
  10. Matchday 25Marítimo(H)
  11. Matchday 26Gil Vicente(H)
  12. Matchday 27Estoril(A)
  13. Matchday 28Vitória(H)
  14. Matchday 30Santa Clara(H)
  15. Matchday 31Estrela(A)
  16. Matchday 32Famalicão(H)
  17. Matchday 33Nacional(A)
  18. Matchday 34Sp. Braga(H)

Title · now

49%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

Other clubs' games, in the published round and postponed, whose result moves Porto's title chance (now 49%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise. In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 25 Oct · 20:30 · matchday 9

    Sporting – Ac. Viseu

    Porto's title chance: 49% if Sporting win, 54% with a draw, 57% if Ac. Viseu win.

  2. Mon 26 Oct · 18:45 · matchday 9

    Santa Clara – Benfica

    Porto's title chance: 54% if Santa Clara win, 52% with a draw, 47% if Benfica win.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Porto and Sporting

Who finishes with more points, Porto or another club of your choice.

Porto

Title: 49%Points (median): 82
Title: 28%Points (median): 79

Porto finish with more points than Sporting in 62% of the seasons; Sporting, in 33%; they finish level on points in 4.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 5 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Porto and Sporting
Points gap at the end of the season: Porto and Sporting
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Porto ahead by 25–32 pts31.0%
Porto ahead by 17–24 pts134.3%
Porto ahead by 9–16 pts5920%
Porto ahead by 1–8 pts11237%
level on points144.7%
Sporting ahead by 1–8 pts7425%
Sporting ahead by 9–16 pts237.7%
Sporting ahead by 17–24 pts20.7%
Sporting ahead by 25–32 pts00%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data