Skip to content
Menu
Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Casa Pia

Liga Portugal forecast for Casa Pia: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
52%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 30 (90% of simulations between 20 and 40)Most likely finish: 18th (32%)Attack: 18th · Defence: 14th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Casa Pia can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

8th
0.8%
9th
1.3%
10th
1.8%
11th
2.7%
12th
3.8%
13th
5.4%
14th
7.5%
15th
10%
16th
14%
17th
20%
18th
32%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th0%
5th0.1%
6th0.2%
7th0.4%
8th0.8%
9th1.3%
10th1.8%
11th2.7%
12th3.8%
13th5.4%
14th7.5%
15th10%
16th14%
17th20%
18th32%

Next match

What is at stake for Casa Pia against Estrela

Casa Pia: relegation· Next match · Sat 24 Oct · 15:30 · away

Now
52%
If they win
40%
If they draw
52%
If they lose
60%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Casa Pia winning this match: 29%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model25%
MD1 · 11 Aug42%
MD2 · 14 Aug42%
MD3 · 29 Aug54%
MD4 · 5 Sept63%
MD5 · 12 Sept63%
MD6 · 19 Sept66%
MD7 · 25 Sept47%
MD8 · 11 Oct52%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Casa Pia's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Casa Pia's relegation chance by 17 to 22 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Estrela(A)
  2. Matchday 10Sporting(H)
  3. Matchday 11Alverca(A)
  4. Matchday 12Sp. Braga(H)
  5. Matchday 13Rio Ave(A)
  6. Matchday 14Nacional(H)
The other 20 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Arouca(A)
  2. Matchday 16Famalicão(H)
  3. Matchday 17Ac. Viseu(A)
  4. Matchday 18Marítimo(H)
  5. Matchday 19Benfica(A)
  6. Matchday 20Gil Vicente(H)
  7. Matchday 21Moreirense(A)
  8. Matchday 22Vitória(H)
  9. Matchday 23Porto(A)
  10. Matchday 24Estoril(H)
  11. Matchday 25Santa Clara(A)
  12. Matchday 26Estrela(H)
  13. Matchday 27Sporting(A)
  14. Matchday 28Alverca(H)
  15. Matchday 29Sp. Braga(A)
  16. Matchday 30Rio Ave(H)
  17. Matchday 31Nacional(A)
  18. Matchday 32Arouca(H)
  19. Matchday 33Famalicão(A)
  20. Matchday 34Ac. Viseu(H)

Relegation · now

52%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

Other clubs' games, in the published round and postponed, whose result moves Casa Pia's relegation chance (now 52%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise. In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 25 Oct · 18:00 · matchday 9

    Nacional – Sp. Braga

    Casa Pia's relegation chance: 55% if Nacional win, 52% with a draw, 51% if Sp. Braga win.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Casa Pia and Nacional

Who finishes with more points, Casa Pia or another club of your choice.

Casa Pia

Relegation: 52%Points (median): 30
Relegation: 44%Points (median): 31

Casa Pia finish with more points than Nacional in 43% of the seasons; Nacional, in 52%; they finish level on points in 4.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Casa Pia and Nacional
Points gap at the end of the season: Casa Pia and Nacional
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Casa Pia ahead by 28–36 pts00%
Casa Pia ahead by 19–27 pts51.7%
Casa Pia ahead by 10–18 pts4114%
Casa Pia ahead by 1–9 pts8328%
level on points144.7%
Nacional ahead by 1–9 pts11137%
Nacional ahead by 10–18 pts4114%
Nacional ahead by 19–27 pts41.3%
Nacional ahead by 28–36 pts10.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data