Sp. BragaEstoril
Matchday 6
Sp. Braga
64%
Home win
Draw
20%
Draw
Estoril
16%
Away win
64%
20%
16%
Most likely outcome: Sp. Braga (64%)
What is at stake
Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.
Win Sp. Braga
Sp. Braga
| Title | 1% | +0.2 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 18% | +2.4 pp |
Estoril
| Relegation | 14% | +1.8 pp |
Draw
Sp. Braga
| Title | <1% | −0.3 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 12% | −3.3 pp |
Estoril
| Relegation | 11% | −1.2 pp |
Win Estoril
Sp. Braga
| Title | <1% | −0.3 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 10% | −5.5 pp |
Estoril
| Relegation | 7% | −5.8 pp |
Change against the current probability, in percentage points.
How they arrive
Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.
Sp. BragaHomeP: 3Pts: 7GD: +2
Form
W2-1@ Alverca
W1-0v Vitória
D2-2@ Moreirense
Model strength
Attack4th
Defence4th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 6.1xGF: 4.3xGA: 1.6Luck: +0.9
EstorilAwayP: 4Pts: 1GD: -5
Form
L1-2@ Benfica
L0-2v Rio Ave
D1-1v Famalicão
Model strength
Attack5th
Defence12th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 3.5xGF: 3.2xGA: 6.3Luck: -2.5
Squads
Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.
Sp. BragaUnavailable· 12% of squad value
- Bright Arrey-MbiCentre-Backunknown injury9 M€
- Sikou NiakatéCentre-BackAchilles tendon rupture6 M€
- Adrian BarisicCentre-BackAdductor injury4 M€
Key players (SAR)
- Pau VíctorForward0.22
- Fran NavarroForward0.21
- Ricardo HortaMidfielder0.14
- Gabriel SilvaForward0.11
EstorilUnavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
- Yanis BegraouiForward0.30
- André LacximicantForward0.12
- João CarvalhoForward0.11
SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-06