BenficaGil Vicente
Matchday 6
Benfica
74%
Home win
Draw
17%
Draw
Gil Vicente
10%
Away win
74%
17%
10%
Most likely outcome: Benfica (74%)
What is at stake
Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.
Win Benfica
Benfica
| Title | 25% | +2.2 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 94% | +1.1 pp |
Gil Vicente
| Relegation | 2% | +0.3 pp |
Draw
Benfica
| Title | 17% | −5.0 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 91% | −2.2 pp |
Gil Vicente
| Relegation | 1% | −0.5 pp |
Win Gil Vicente
Benfica
| Title | 14% | −8.2 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 88% | −4.7 pp |
Gil Vicente
| Relegation | 1% | −1.2 pp |
Change against the current probability, in percentage points.
How they arrive
Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.
BenficaHomeP: 4Pts: 10GD: +11
Form
W2-1v Estoril
D2-2v Ac. Viseu
Model strength
Attack2nd
Defence3rd
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 10.0xGF: 9.3xGA: 1.8Luck: 0.0
Gil VicenteAwayP: 4Pts: 7GD: +2
Form
L0-1v Ac. Viseu
D0-0@ Famalicão
W2-0v Casa Pia
W1-0v Rio Ave
Model strength
Attack9th
Defence8th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 8.0xGF: 5.4xGA: 1.8Luck: -1.0
Squads
Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.
BenficaUnavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
- Vangelis PavlidisForward0.43
- Rafa SilvaMidfielder0.23
- BrumaForward0.22
- Andreas SchjelderupForward0.21
Gil VicenteUnavailable· 5% of squad value
- Mohamed BambaDefensive Midfieldunknown injury1.5 M€
Key players (SAR)
- Héctor HernándezForward0.27
- Carlos EduardoForward0.12
SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-06