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Benfica

Season 2026-27 · Matchday 5

Champion
22%
Top 3
93%
Relegation
0%
Expected points: 76 ± 6Most likely finish: 3rd (37%)Attack:2ndDefense:3rd

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

1st
22%
2nd
34%
3rd
37%
4th
7%

Probability over time

How champion probability has evolved across matchdays.

Victory scenarios

Three possible paths to the title, from most likely to least likely. Each scenario shows what needs to happen — and what rivals must do.

4 wins

7% of title scenarios
22%
↓
61%
GW7POR(A)Win
22%→31%
GW14BRA(H)Win
31%→36%
GW31BRA(A)Win
36%→43%
GW33SCP(A)Win
43%→61%
Also needs to happen
Sporting drops points vs SLB (GW33)
Porto drops points vs SLB (GW7)
Sporting drops points vs SLB (GW16)

3 wins, 1 loss

6% of title scenarios
22%
↓
32%
GW7POR(A)Win
22%→31%
GW14BRA(H)Win
31%→36%
GW31BRA(A)Win
36%→43%
GW33SCP(A)Loss
43%→32%
Also needs to happen
Porto drops points vs SLB (GW7)
Sporting drops points vs SLB (GW16)
Porto drops points vs SLB (GW24)

3 wins, 1 loss

5% of title scenarios
22%
↓
39%
GW7POR(A)Loss
22%→16%
GW14BRA(H)Win
16%→19%
GW31BRA(A)Win
19%→24%
GW33SCP(A)Win
24%→39%
Also needs to happen
Sporting drops points vs SLB (GW33)
Porto drops points vs SLB (GW24)
Sporting drops points vs SLB (GW16)

Build your scenario

Pick results and see how the probability changes match by match.

MD
W
D
L
Champion
3
Moreirense(A)
22%
6
Gil Vicente(H)
22%
7
Porto(A)
22%
8
Vitória(H)
22%
9
Santa Clara(A)
22%
10
Alverca(H)
22%
11
Estrela(A)
22%
12
Famalicão(H)
22%
13
Nacional(A)
22%
14
Sp. Braga(H)
22%
15
Rio Ave(A)
22%
16
Sporting(H)
22%
17
Arouca(A)
22%
18
Ac. Viseu(A)
22%
19
Casa Pia(H)
22%
20
Moreirense(H)
22%
21
Estoril(A)
22%
22
Marítimo(H)
22%
23
Gil Vicente(A)
22%
24
Porto(H)
22%
25
Vitória(A)
22%
26
Santa Clara(H)
22%
27
Alverca(A)
22%
28
Estrela(H)
22%
29
Famalicão(A)
22%
30
Nacional(H)
22%
31
Sp. Braga(A)
22%
32
Rio Ave(H)
22%
33
Sporting(A)
22%
34
Arouca(H)
22%

Decisive matches for Benfica

The remaining fixtures with the biggest impact on Benfica's title probability.

Title race

Benfica
BenficavsCasa Pia
GW19
—
Current: 22%·If they win: 24%·If they lose: 12%

Relegation battle

Casa Pia
Ac. ViseuvsCasa Pia
GW17
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 50%·If they lose: 70%
Casa PiavsAlverca
GW28
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 51%·If they lose: 70%
Casa PiavsRio Ave
GW30
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 52%·If they lose: 71%
BenficavsCasa Pia
GW19
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 46%·If they lose: 64%
Casa PiavsGil Vicente
GW20
—
Current: 62%·If they win: 52%·If they lose: 69%