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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Benfica

Liga Portugal forecast for Benfica: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Champion
22%
Top 3
97%

Relegation: below 1% in the simulations (17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted).

Expected points: 78 (90% of simulations between 68 and 87)Most likely finish: 3rd (41%)Attack: 2nd · Defence: 3rd (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Benfica can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

1st
22%
2nd
33%
3rd
41%
4th
2.9%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st22%
2nd33%
3rd41%
4th2.9%
5th0.1%
6th<0.1%
7th0%
8th0%
9th0%
10th0%
11th0%
12th0%
13th0%
14th0%
15th0%
16th0%
17th0%
18th0%

3rd is the most likely finish (41%); 75% of the simulations end between 2nd and 3rd.

Next match

What is at stake for Benfica against Santa Clara

Benfica: title· Next match · Mon 26 Oct · 18:45 · away

Now
22%
If they win
26%
If they draw
17%
If they lose
14%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Benfica winning this match: 65%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of winning the title, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Champion (%)
Champion (%)
ForecastChampion (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model24%
MD1 · 11 Aug22%
MD2 · 14 Aug22%
MD3 · 29 Aug22%
MD4 · 5 Sept21%
MD5 · 12 Sept25%
MD6 · 19 Sept30%
MD7 · 25 Sept22%
MD8 · 11 Oct22%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Benfica's remaining games and see how the chance of winning the title moves, game by game. How it works

Marked as decisive: the 3 games where winning or losing moves Benfica's title chance most, 17 to 21 percentage points between one result and the other; each of the others moves it 10 to 13.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Santa Clara(A)
  2. Matchday 10Alverca(H)
  3. Matchday 11Estrela(A)
  4. Matchday 12Famalicão(H)
  5. Matchday 13Nacional(A)
  6. Matchday 14Sp. Braga(H)
  7. Matchday 16Sporting(H)decisive
  8. Matchday 24Porto(H)decisive
  9. Matchday 33Sporting(A)decisive
The other 17 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Rio Ave(A)
  2. Matchday 17Arouca(A)
  3. Matchday 18Ac. Viseu(A)
  4. Matchday 19Casa Pia(H)
  5. Matchday 20Moreirense(H)
  6. Matchday 21Estoril(A)
  7. Matchday 22Marítimo(H)
  8. Matchday 23Gil Vicente(A)
  9. Matchday 25Vitória(A)
  10. Matchday 26Santa Clara(H)
  11. Matchday 27Alverca(A)
  12. Matchday 28Estrela(H)
  13. Matchday 29Famalicão(A)
  14. Matchday 30Nacional(H)
  15. Matchday 31Sp. Braga(A)
  16. Matchday 32Rio Ave(H)
  17. Matchday 34Arouca(H)

Title · now

22%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

Other clubs' games, in the published round and postponed, whose result moves Benfica's title chance (now 22%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise. In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sat 24 Oct · 20:30 · matchday 9

    Gil Vicente – Porto

    Benfica's title chance: 28% if Gil Vicente win, 25% with a draw, 20% if Porto win.

  2. Sun 25 Oct · 20:30 · matchday 9

    Sporting – Ac. Viseu

    Benfica's title chance: 22% if Sporting win, 25% with a draw, 28% if Ac. Viseu win.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Benfica and Sporting

Who finishes with more points, Benfica or another club of your choice.

Benfica

Title: 22%Points (median): 78
Title: 28%Points (median): 79

Benfica finish with more points than Sporting in 41% of the seasons; Sporting, in 56%; they finish level on points in 3.3%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Benfica and Sporting
Points gap at the end of the season: Benfica and Sporting
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Benfica ahead by 19–24 pts20.7%
Benfica ahead by 13–18 pts103.3%
Benfica ahead by 7–12 pts289.3%
Benfica ahead by 1–6 pts8328%
level on points103.3%
Sporting ahead by 1–6 pts8629%
Sporting ahead by 7–12 pts6522%
Sporting ahead by 13–18 pts144.7%
Sporting ahead by 19–24 pts20.7%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data