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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Gil Vicente

Liga Portugal forecast for Gil Vicente: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
1.2%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 44 (90% of simulations between 34 and 55)Most likely finish: 7th (14%)Attack: 11th · Defence: 8th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Gil Vicente can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
2.0%
5th
10%
6th
13%
7th
14%
8th
12%
9th
11%
10th
9.5%
11th
7.9%
12th
6.1%
13th
4.8%
14th
3.4%
15th
2.5%
16th
1.6%
17th
0.8%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd<0.1%
4th2.0%
5th10%
6th13%
7th14%
8th12%
9th11%
10th9.5%
11th7.9%
12th6.1%
13th4.8%
14th3.4%
15th2.5%
16th1.6%
17th0.8%
18th0.3%

7th is the most likely finish (14%); 71% of the simulations end between 5th and 10th.

Next match

What is at stake for Gil Vicente against Sp. Braga

Gil Vicente: relegation· Postponed round 2 match, now on 19 October

Now
1.2%
If they win
0.4%
If they draw
1.0%
If they lose
1.5%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself.

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model2.7%
MD1 · 11 Aug2.7%
MD2 · 14 Aug2.6%
MD3 · 29 Aug1.2%
MD4 · 5 Sept1.1%
MD5 · 12 Sept2.0%
MD6 · 19 Sept2.2%
MD7 · 25 Sept2.7%
MD8 · 11 Oct1.2%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Gil Vicente's relegation chance (now 1.2%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Gil Vicente and Famalicão

Who finishes with more points, Gil Vicente or another club of your choice.

Gil Vicente

Relegation: 1.2%Points (median): 44
Relegation: 1.2%Points (median): 44

Gil Vicente finish with more points than Famalicão in 53% of the seasons; Famalicão, in 43%; they finish level on points in 4.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Gil Vicente and Famalicão
Points gap at the end of the season: Gil Vicente and Famalicão
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Gil Vicente ahead by 25–32 pts20.7%
Gil Vicente ahead by 17–24 pts124.0%
Gil Vicente ahead by 9–16 pts3411%
Gil Vicente ahead by 1–8 pts11037%
level on points144.7%
Famalicão ahead by 1–8 pts8328%
Famalicão ahead by 9–16 pts3813%
Famalicão ahead by 17–24 pts62.0%
Famalicão ahead by 25–32 pts10.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works

The games Gil Vicente has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Mon 19 Oct · 20:15Sp. Bragaaway · MD2postponed
  2. Sat 24 Oct · 20:30Portohome · MD9
  3. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Vitóriahome · MD10
  4. Sun 8 Novprovisional dateSanta Claraaway · MD11
  5. Sun 29 Novprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD12
  6. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD13
  7. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateSportinghome · MD14
  8. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateAlvercaaway · MD15
  9. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateAroucahome · MD16
  10. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateNacionalaway · MD17
  11. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD18
  12. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateSp. Bragahome · MD19
  13. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD20
  14. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD21
  15. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD22
  16. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateBenficahome · MD23
  17. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD24
  18. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD25
  19. Sun 14 Marprovisional datePortoaway · MD26
  20. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD27
  21. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateSanta Clarahome · MD28
  22. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateEstorilaway · MD29
  23. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateEstrelahome · MD30
  24. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateSportingaway · MD31
  25. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateAlvercahome · MD32
  26. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD33
  27. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateNacionalhome · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data