Liga Portugal

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

AroucaHome

P: 4Pts: 9GD: +4

Form

L0-2@ Porto

W2-1v Marítimo

W1-0@ Vitória

Model strength

Attack8th

Defence11th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 5.1xGF: 4.9xGA: 6.3Luck: +3.9

Santa ClaraAway

P: 5Pts: 11GD: +6

Form

W4-0v Rio Ave

W1-0v Famalicão

D1-1@ Alverca

D2-2v Nacional

Model strength

Attack15th

Defence5th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 9.6xGF: 7.4xGA: 3.7Luck: +1.4

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Arouca

Unavailable

No absences on record.

Key players (SAR)

• Ivan BarberoForward0.26
• Dylan NandínForward0.12

Santa Clara

Unavailable· 12% of squad value

• MTCentre-BackCruciate ligament tear3.5 M€

Key players (SAR)

• Gonçalo PaciênciaForward0.30
• Vinícius LopesForward0.19

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)