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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Santa Clara

Liga Portugal forecast for Santa Clara: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)

Champion, top 3 and relegation: below 1% in the simulations (relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted).

Expected points: 50 (90% of simulations between 40 and 61)Most likely finish: 5th (34%)Attack: 13th · Defence: 5th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Santa Clara can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
8.8%
5th
34%
6th
20%
7th
13%
8th
8.7%
9th
5.8%
10th
3.9%
11th
2.3%
12th
1.5%
13th
1.0%
14th
0.5%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0.2%
4th8.8%
5th34%
6th20%
7th13%
8th8.7%
9th5.8%
10th3.9%
11th2.3%
12th1.5%
13th1.0%
14th0.5%
15th0.2%
16th0.1%
17th0.1%
18th<0.1%

Next match

What is at stake for Santa Clara

Next match · Mon 26 Oct · 18:45 · at home

Win
14%
Draw
22%
Lose
65%

This match's probabilities, from Santa Clara's side. Neither the title nor relegation reaches 1% for Santa Clara in this forecast.

Match analysis

The games Santa Clara has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Mon 26 Oct · 18:45Benficahome · MD9
  2. Sun 1 Nov · 18:00Marítimoaway · MD10
  3. Sun 8 Novprovisional dateGil Vicentehome · MD11
  4. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD12
  5. Sun 6 Decprovisional datePortohome · MD13
  6. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateEstorilaway · MD14
  7. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD15
  8. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateEstrelahome · MD16
  9. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateSportingaway · MD17
  10. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateNacionalaway · MD18
  11. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD19
  12. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateFamalicãoaway · MD20
  13. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateAlvercahome · MD21
  14. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD22
  15. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateAroucahome · MD23
  16. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateSp. Bragaaway · MD24
  17. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateCasa Piahome · MD25
  18. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateBenficaaway · MD26
  19. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateMarítimohome · MD27
  20. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD28
  21. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD29
  22. Sun 18 Aprprovisional datePortoaway · MD30
  23. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD31
  24. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD32
  25. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD33
  26. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateSportinghome · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data