Liga Portugal
Ac. Viseu
vs
Vitória
Matchday 6
Ac. Viseu
30%
Home win
Draw
28%
Draw
Vitória
42%
Away win
30%
28%
42%
Most likely outcome: Vitória (42%)

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Win Ac. Viseu
Ac. Viseu
Relegation11%−6.3 pp
Vitória
Relegation3%+1.4 pp
Draw
Ac. Viseu
Relegation17%−0.4 pp
Vitória
Relegation2%+0.2 pp
Win Vitória
Ac. Viseu
Relegation22%+4.7 pp
Vitória
Relegation1%−1.1 pp

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

Ac. ViseuHome
P: 5Pts: 5GD: -3
Form
W1-0@ Gil Vicente
L0-3v Porto
D2-2@ Benfica
Model strength
Attack14th
Defence15th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 4.2xGF: 4.6xGA: 9.0Luck: +0.8
VitóriaAway
P: 5Pts: 4GD: -2
Form
D0-0v Casa Pia
L0-1@ Sp. Braga
W1-0v Nacional
L2-3@ Sporting
L0-1v Arouca
Model strength
Attack6th
Defence7th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 10.1xGF: 9.0xGA: 3.2Luck: -6.1
Team page: Ac. ViseuTeam page: Vitória

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Ac. Viseu
Unavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
No players with enough minutes.
Vitória
Unavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
  • Gustavo SilvaForward0.29
  • Oumar CamaraForward0.16
  • Alioune NdoyeForward0.11

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)

Other fixtures

Estoril — Arouca
43% · 25% · 31%
Arouca — Santa Clara
36% · 30% · 34%
Sp. Braga — Estoril
64% · 20% · 16%
Casa Pia — Porto
9% · 19% · 72%
Moreirense — Marítimo
42% · 28% · 30%
Nacional — Alverca
40% · 27% · 33%
Rio Ave — Estrela
43% · 28% · 30%
Benfica — Gil Vicente
74% · 17% · 10%
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-06