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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Vitória

Liga Portugal forecast for Vitória: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
2.9%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 42 (90% of simulations between 31 and 53)Most likely finish: 8th (11%)Attack: 6th · Defence: 7th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Vitória can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
0.9%
5th
6.2%
6th
9.3%
7th
10%
8th
11%
9th
11%
10th
10%
11th
9.7%
12th
8.3%
13th
6.8%
14th
5.6%
15th
4.3%
16th
3.0%
17th
2.0%
18th
1.0%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th0.9%
5th6.2%
6th9.3%
7th10%
8th11%
9th11%
10th10%
11th9.7%
12th8.3%
13th6.8%
14th5.6%
15th4.3%
16th3.0%
17th2.0%
18th1.0%

8th is the most likely finish (11%); 70% of the simulations end between 6th and 12th.

Next match

What is at stake for Vitória against Marítimo

Vitória: relegation· Next match · Fri 23 Oct · 20:45 · at home

Now
2.9%
If they win
1.7%
If they draw
3.6%
If they lose
5.9%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Vitória winning this match: 57%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model1.0%
MD1 · 11 Aug3.0%
MD2 · 14 Aug2.7%
MD3 · 29 Aug1.4%
MD4 · 5 Sept1.7%
MD5 · 12 Sept2.0%
MD6 · 19 Sept3.1%
MD7 · 25 Sept2.9%
MD8 · 11 Oct2.9%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Vitória's relegation chance (now 2.9%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Vitória and Alverca

Who finishes with more points, Vitória or another club of your choice.

Vitória

Relegation: 2.9%Points (median): 42
Relegation: 2.6%Points (median): 42

Vitória finish with more points than Alverca in 49% of the seasons; Alverca, in 46%; they finish level on points in 4.3%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Vitória and Alverca
Points gap at the end of the season: Vitória and Alverca
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Vitória ahead by 25–32 pts00%
Vitória ahead by 17–24 pts82.7%
Vitória ahead by 9–16 pts4916%
Vitória ahead by 1–8 pts9130%
level on points134.3%
Alverca ahead by 1–8 pts7826%
Alverca ahead by 9–16 pts4615%
Alverca ahead by 17–24 pts134.3%
Alverca ahead by 25–32 pts20.7%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works

The games Vitória has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Fri 23 Oct · 20:45Marítimohome · MD9
  2. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Gil Vicenteaway · MD10
  3. Sun 8 Novprovisional datePortohome · MD11
  4. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateEstrelahome · MD12
  5. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateEstorilaway · MD13
  6. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateAlvercahome · MD14
  7. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateSanta Claraaway · MD15
  8. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateRio Avehome · MD16
  9. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateFamalicãoaway · MD17
  10. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD18
  11. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateSportinghome · MD19
  12. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateNacionalaway · MD20
  13. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateSp. Bragahome · MD21
  14. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD22
  15. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD23
  16. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD24
  17. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateBenficahome · MD25
  18. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD26
  19. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateGil Vicentehome · MD27
  20. Sun 4 Aprprovisional datePortoaway · MD28
  21. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD29
  22. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD30
  23. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateAlvercaaway · MD31
  24. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateSanta Clarahome · MD32
  25. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD33
  26. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data