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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Ac. Viseu

Liga Portugal forecast for Ac. Viseu: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 11 Oct, with 8 of matchday 8’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 8 (12 Oct)
Relegation
5.9%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 39 (90% of simulations between 29 and 50)Most likely finish: 11th (11%)Attack: 16th · Defence: 17th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Ac. Viseu can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

5th
2.5%
6th
4.8%
7th
6.6%
8th
8.1%
9th
9.2%
10th
10%
11th
11%
12th
10%
13th
9.7%
14th
8.7%
15th
7.4%
16th
5.9%
17th
3.8%
18th
2.1%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th0.3%
5th2.5%
6th4.8%
7th6.6%
8th8.1%
9th9.2%
10th10%
11th11%
12th10%
13th9.7%
14th8.7%
15th7.4%
16th5.9%
17th3.8%
18th2.1%

11th is the most likely finish (11%); 74% of the simulations end between 8th and 15th.

Next match

What is at stake for Ac. Viseu against Sporting

Ac. Viseu: relegation· Next match · Sun 25 Oct · 20:30 · away

Now
5.9%
If they win
2.0%
If they draw
3.5%
If they lose
6.3%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Ac. Viseu winning this match: 3.3%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model43%
MD1 · 11 Aug20%
MD2 · 14 Aug20%
MD3 · 29 Aug23%
MD4 · 5 Sept26%
MD5 · 12 Sept18%
MD6 · 19 Sept11%
MD7 · 25 Sept11%
MD8 · 11 Oct5.9%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 11 October 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Ac. Viseu's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Ac. Viseu's relegation chance by 4 to 7 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 9Sporting(A)
  2. Matchday 10Rio Ave(H)
  3. Matchday 11Nacional(A)
  4. Matchday 12Alverca(H)
  5. Matchday 13Famalicão(A)
  6. Matchday 14Arouca(H)
The other 20 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 15Sp. Braga(A)
  2. Matchday 16Moreirense(A)
  3. Matchday 17Casa Pia(H)
  4. Matchday 18Benfica(H)
  5. Matchday 19Santa Clara(A)
  6. Matchday 20Marítimo(H)
  7. Matchday 21Porto(A)
  8. Matchday 22Gil Vicente(H)
  9. Matchday 23Vitória(A)
  10. Matchday 24Estrela(H)
  11. Matchday 25Estoril(A)
  12. Matchday 26Sporting(H)
  13. Matchday 27Rio Ave(A)
  14. Matchday 28Nacional(H)
  15. Matchday 29Alverca(A)
  16. Matchday 30Famalicão(H)
  17. Matchday 31Arouca(A)
  18. Matchday 32Sp. Braga(H)
  19. Matchday 33Moreirense(H)
  20. Matchday 34Casa Pia(A)

Relegation · now

5.9%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Ac. Viseu's relegation chance (now 5.9%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Ac. Viseu and Vitória

Who finishes with more points, Ac. Viseu or another club of your choice.

Ac. Viseu

Relegation: 5.9%Points (median): 39
Relegation: 2.9%Points (median): 42

Ac. Viseu finish with more points than Vitória in 40% of the seasons; Vitória, in 57%; they finish level on points in 3.7%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Ac. Viseu and Vitória
Points gap at the end of the season: Ac. Viseu and Vitória
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Ac. Viseu ahead by 22–28 pts20.7%
Ac. Viseu ahead by 15–21 pts72.3%
Ac. Viseu ahead by 8–14 pts4114%
Ac. Viseu ahead by 1–7 pts6923%
level on points113.7%
Vitória ahead by 1–7 pts7625%
Vitória ahead by 8–14 pts6421%
Vitória ahead by 15–21 pts227.3%
Vitória ahead by 22–28 pts82.7%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 11 OctHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 11 October 2026). How the model worksOpen data