Skip to content
Menu
Liga Portugal

Matchday 10 · played

Porto – Estoril

The result and what the model gave before the match. The season forecast is on the Liga page.

Porto
Final score: 4 to 0
Estoril
Saturday 31 October at 20:30

Before the match, the model gave these probabilities (published 24 October 2026, while matchday 9 was still being played):

Porto win
77%
Happened
Draw
15%
Estoril win
7.8%
away

Porto won. Before the match, the model gave this outcome 77%.

What Porto has leftWhat Estoril has left

Next fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 1 Nov · 20:30Sp. Braga – FamalicãoSp. Braga 56% · draw 24% · Famalicão 20%
  2. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Gil Vicente – VitóriaGil Vicente 35% · draw 29% · Vitória 35%
  3. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Benfica – AlvercaBenfica 77% · draw 15% · Alverca 8.0%
  4. Fri 6 Nov · 20:45Famalicão – AroucaFamalicão 48% · draw 27% · Arouca 25%
  5. Sat 7 Nov · 15:30Nacional – Ac. ViseuNacional 42% · draw 27% · Ac. Viseu 30%
  6. Sat 7 Nov · 18:00Alverca – Casa PiaAlverca 51% · draw 26% · Casa Pia 23%
  7. Sat 7 Nov · 20:30Sporting – MoreirenseSporting 84% · draw 11% · Moreirense 4.6%
  8. Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Santa Clara – Gil VicenteSanta Clara 39% · draw 31% · Gil Vicente 30%
  9. Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Estoril – MarítimoEstoril 55% · draw 24% · Marítimo 21%
  10. Sun 8 Nov · 18:00Vitória – PortoVitória 15% · draw 23% · Porto 62%
  11. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Rio Ave – Sp. BragaRio Ave 18% · draw 22% · Sp. Braga 60%
  12. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Estrela – BenficaEstrela 8.4% · draw 15% · Benfica 76%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · Next fixtures: forecast of 1 November 2026