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Liga Portugal

Matchday 10

Benfica – Alverca

What the model expects from this match, and what each result changes for both clubs.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 6 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (1–2 Nov)
Benfica
Alverca
Monday 2 November at 20:15
Benfica win
77%
at home
Draw
15%
Alverca win
8.0%
away
Most likely outcome: Benfica (77%)

What this match changes for Benfica

Probability of winning the title, now and under each of the three possible results, on the same scale.

Now
22%
If Benfica win
24%, up 2.0 percentage points from now
If they draw
16%, down 5.8 percentage points from now
If Benfica lose
13%, down 8.9 percentage points from now

The vertical line marks the current probability (now); the hollow bars show each possible result, on the same scale. This is not the chance the match ends that way — see the match-probabilities section above. How it is computed

For comparison: Alverca's title chance is currently 0%.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

BenficaHome
P: 9Pts: 22GD: +18
Form
W2–1Santa Clara (A, away)
W2–0Vitória (H, at home)
L1–3Porto (A, away)
W3–1Gil Vicente (H, at home)
W4–0Moreirense (A, away)
Model strength
Attack2nd
Defence3rd
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 20.1xGF: 20.5xGA: 6.6Pts − xPts: +1.9
AlvercaAway
P: 9Pts: 11GD: 0
Form
L0–1Arouca (H, at home)
W4–1Famalicão (A, away)
W1–0Rio Ave (H, at home)
W3–1Nacional (A, away)
L1–2Sp. Braga (H, at home)
Model strength
Attack8th
Defence9th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 11.1xGF: 13.3xGA: 14.5Pts − xPts: −0.1
Team page: BenficaTeam page: Alverca

Squads

Known absentees and each side's players on the published finishing list of 40 (SAR, skill above replacement). Neither absences nor individual players feed this forecast: the model uses goals, shots on target and each squad's value. Absences are not shown: the published list, from 16 October 2026, is not recent enough for this forecast.

Benfica
Unavailable
No recent absence data.
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress).

  • Vangelis PavlidisForward0.42
  • BrumaForward0.22
  • Andreas SchjelderupForward0.21
  • Rafa SilvaMidfielder0.20
Alverca
Unavailable
No recent absence data.
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress).

  • FigueiredoForward0.14
  • ChiquinhoForward0.14

SAR: goals per 90 minutes above a replacement-level player, with extreme values capped.

Other fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 1 Nov · 20:30Sp. Braga – FamalicãoSp. Braga 56% · draw 24% · Famalicão 20%
  2. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Gil Vicente – VitóriaGil Vicente 35% · draw 29% · Vitória 35%
  3. Fri 6 Nov · 20:45Famalicão – AroucaFamalicão 48% · draw 27% · Arouca 25%
  4. Sat 7 Nov · 15:30Nacional – Ac. ViseuNacional 42% · draw 27% · Ac. Viseu 30%
  5. Sat 7 Nov · 18:00Alverca – Casa PiaAlverca 51% · draw 26% · Casa Pia 23%
  6. Sat 7 Nov · 20:30Sporting – MoreirenseSporting 84% · draw 11% · Moreirense 4.6%
  7. Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Santa Clara – Gil VicenteSanta Clara 39% · draw 31% · Gil Vicente 30%
  8. Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Estoril – MarítimoEstoril 55% · draw 24% · Marítimo 21%
  9. Sun 8 Nov · 18:00Vitória – PortoVitória 15% · draw 23% · Porto 62%
  10. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Rio Ave – Sp. BragaRio Ave 18% · draw 22% · Sp. Braga 60%
  11. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Estrela – BenficaEstrela 8.4% · draw 15% · Benfica 76%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · forecast of 1 November 2026