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Liga Portugal

Matchday 11

Famalicão – Arouca

What the model expects from this match, and what each result changes for both clubs.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 6 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (1–2 Nov)
Famalicão
Arouca
Friday 6 November at 20:45
Famalicão win
48%
at home
Draw
27%
Arouca win
25%
away
Most likely outcome: Famalicão (48%)

Favourite among three outcomes — not the same as being more likely than all alternatives combined: Famalicão wins in 48% of scenarios, but doesn't in 52%.

Call this match in Beat the Model

What this match changes for Arouca

Probability of finishing in the top 3, now and under each of the three possible results, on the same scale.

Now
0.1%
If Arouca win
0.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from now
If they draw
0.1%, no change
If Arouca lose
0.1%, no change

The vertical line marks the current probability (now); the hollow bars show each possible result, on the same scale. This is not the chance the match ends that way — see the match-probabilities section above. How it is computed

For comparison: Famalicão's top 3 chance is currently <0.1%.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

FamalicãoHome
P: 9Pts: 10GD: +3
Form
W4–0Rio Ave (A, away)
L1–4Alverca (H, at home)
W4–0Nacional (A, away)
D1–1Sporting (H, at home)
D2–2Estrela (A, away)
Model strength
Attack7th
Defence7th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 10.7xGF: 9.1xGA: 12.4Pts − xPts: −0.7
AroucaAway
P: 10Pts: 20GD: +6
Form
W1–0Nacional (H, at home)
W1–0Alverca (A, away)
W1–0Estrela (H, at home)
D2–2Sporting (A, away)
L1–2Santa Clara (H, at home)
Model strength
Attack9th
Defence10th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 14.4xGF: 12.4xGA: 12.0Pts − xPts: +5.6
Team page: FamalicãoTeam page: Arouca

Squads

Known absentees and each side's players on the published finishing list of 40 (SAR, skill above replacement). Neither absences nor individual players feed this forecast: the model uses goals, shots on target and each squad's value. Absences are not shown: the published list, from 16 October 2026, is not recent enough for this forecast.

Famalicão
Unavailable
No recent absence data.
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress).

  • Óscar ArandaForward0.19
  • Georgios KoutsiasForward0.18
Arouca
Unavailable
No recent absence data.
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress).

  • Ivan BarberoForward0.26
  • Dylan NandínForward0.14

SAR: goals per 90 minutes above a replacement-level player, with extreme values capped.

Other fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 1 Nov · 20:30Sp. Braga – FamalicãoSp. Braga 56% · draw 24% · Famalicão 20%
  2. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Gil Vicente – VitóriaGil Vicente 35% · draw 29% · Vitória 35%
  3. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Benfica – AlvercaBenfica 77% · draw 15% · Alverca 8.0%
  4. Sat 7 Nov · 15:30Nacional – Ac. ViseuNacional 42% · draw 27% · Ac. Viseu 30%
  5. Sat 7 Nov · 18:00Alverca – Casa PiaAlverca 51% · draw 26% · Casa Pia 23%
  6. Sat 7 Nov · 20:30Sporting – MoreirenseSporting 84% · draw 11% · Moreirense 4.6%
  7. Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Santa Clara – Gil VicenteSanta Clara 39% · draw 31% · Gil Vicente 30%
  8. Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Estoril – MarítimoEstoril 55% · draw 24% · Marítimo 21%
  9. Sun 8 Nov · 18:00Vitória – PortoVitória 15% · draw 23% · Porto 62%
  10. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Rio Ave – Sp. BragaRio Ave 18% · draw 22% · Sp. Braga 60%
  11. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Estrela – BenficaEstrela 8.4% · draw 15% · Benfica 76%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · forecast of 1 November 2026