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Liga Portugal

Matchday 11

Santa Clara – Gil Vicente

What the model expects from this match, and what each result changes for both clubs.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 6 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (1–2 Nov)
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente
Sunday 8 November at 15:30
Santa Clara win
39%
at home
Draw
31%
Gil Vicente win
30%
away
Most likely outcome: Santa Clara (39%)

Favourite among three outcomes — not the same as being more likely than all alternatives combined: Santa Clara wins in 39% of scenarios, but doesn't in 61%.

Call this match in Beat the Model

What this match changes for Santa Clara

Probability of finishing in the top 3, now and under each of the three possible results, on the same scale.

Now
0.3%
If Santa Clara win
0.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from now
If they draw
0.2%, no change
If Santa Clara lose
0.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from now

The vertical line marks the current probability (now); the hollow bars show each possible result, on the same scale. This is not the chance the match ends that way — see the match-probabilities section above. How it is computed

For comparison: Gil Vicente's top 3 chance is currently <0.1%.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

Santa ClaraHome
P: 10Pts: 21GD: +9
Form
W2–0Marítimo (A, away)
L1–2Benfica (H, at home)
W1–0Casa Pia (A, away)
D0–0Sp. Braga (H, at home)
W2–1Arouca (A, away)
Model strength
Attack12th
Defence5th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 16.6xGF: 12.6xGA: 8.8Pts − xPts: +4.4
Gil VicenteAway
P: 9Pts: 14GD: +1
Form
L0–1Porto (H, at home)
W2–1Sp. Braga (A, away)
W1–0Moreirense (A, away)
D1–1Marítimo (H, at home)
L1–3Benfica (A, away)
Model strength
Attack11th
Defence8th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 13.8xGF: 11.2xGA: 9.2Pts − xPts: +0.2
Team page: Santa ClaraTeam page: Gil Vicente

Squads

Known absentees and each side's players on the published finishing list of 40 (SAR, skill above replacement). Neither absences nor individual players feed this forecast: the model uses goals, shots on target and each squad's value. Absences are not shown: the published list, from 16 October 2026, is not recent enough for this forecast.

Santa Clara
Unavailable
No recent absence data.
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress).

  • Gonçalo PaciênciaForward0.27
  • Vinícius LopesForward0.18
Gil Vicente
Unavailable
No recent absence data.
Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress).

  • Héctor HernándezForward0.26
  • Carlos EduardoForward0.11

SAR: goals per 90 minutes above a replacement-level player, with extreme values capped.

Other fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 1 Nov · 20:30Sp. Braga – FamalicãoSp. Braga 56% · draw 24% · Famalicão 20%
  2. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Gil Vicente – VitóriaGil Vicente 35% · draw 29% · Vitória 35%
  3. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Benfica – AlvercaBenfica 77% · draw 15% · Alverca 8.0%
  4. Fri 6 Nov · 20:45Famalicão – AroucaFamalicão 48% · draw 27% · Arouca 25%
  5. Sat 7 Nov · 15:30Nacional – Ac. ViseuNacional 42% · draw 27% · Ac. Viseu 30%
  6. Sat 7 Nov · 18:00Alverca – Casa PiaAlverca 51% · draw 26% · Casa Pia 23%
  7. Sat 7 Nov · 20:30Sporting – MoreirenseSporting 84% · draw 11% · Moreirense 4.6%
  8. Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Estoril – MarítimoEstoril 55% · draw 24% · Marítimo 21%
  9. Sun 8 Nov · 18:00Vitória – PortoVitória 15% · draw 23% · Porto 62%
  10. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Rio Ave – Sp. BragaRio Ave 18% · draw 22% · Sp. Braga 60%
  11. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Estrela – BenficaEstrela 8.4% · draw 15% · Benfica 76%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · forecast of 1 November 2026