Alverca – Casa Pia

Probability of relegation, now and under each of the three possible results, on the same scale.

The vertical line marks the current probability (now); the hollow bars show each possible result, on the same scale. This is not the chance the match ends that way — see the match-probabilities section above. How it is computed

For comparison: Alverca's relegation chance is currently 1.6%.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

AlvercaHome

P: 9Pts: 11GD: 0

Form

L0–1Arouca (H, at home)

W4–1Famalicão (A, away)

W1–0Rio Ave (H, at home)

W3–1Nacional (A, away)

L1–2Sp. Braga (H, at home)

Model strength

Attack8th

Defence9th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 11.1xGF: 13.3xGA: 14.5Pts − xPts: −0.1

Casa PiaAway

P: 10Pts: 7GD: −14

Form

L0–2Sporting (H, at home)

W2–0Estrela (A, away)

L0–1Santa Clara (H, at home)

W2–1Estoril (A, away)

L1–4Porto (H, at home)

Model strength

Attack18th

Defence15th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 8.8xGF: 8.0xGA: 16.9Pts − xPts: −1.8

Squads

Known absentees and each side's players on the published finishing list of 40 (SAR, skill above replacement). Neither absences nor individual players feed this forecast: the model uses goals, shots on target and each squad's value. Absences are not shown: the published list, from 16 October 2026, is not recent enough for this forecast.

Alverca

Unavailable

No recent absence data.

Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress).

• FigueiredoForward0.14
• ChiquinhoForward0.14

Casa Pia

Unavailable

No recent absence data.

Finishing (SAR)

Goals/90 above replacement only — a forwards metric, not a general quality ranking. Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress).

• CassianoForward0.19
• Henrique AraújoForward0.12

SAR: goals per 90 minutes above a replacement-level player, with extreme values capped.