Estoril·ForwardScoring skill
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
What the number means: if Yanis Begraoui plays 90 minutes at a neutral venue against an average Liga defence, the model expects 0.27 more goals than if that place were taken by a replacement-level player — the kind of signing any club can make for free. Goals are capped (winsorized) before the estimate, so one four-goal afternoon is not read as permanent skill.
The model puts 90% probability on the true value lying between 0.16 and 0.39. Fewer minutes, wider interval.
Attacking contribution
Seasons 2023-24 to 2026-27
#8 of 40 published
The same structure as the finishing metric, but adding goals and assists together. It sees what the goals-only metric could not: who creates.
Few minutes pull the estimate toward replacement level and widen the interval.
Minutes, matches and goals from 2023-24 to 2026-27 · Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
Season by season
Goals go up and down; the skill estimate barely moves. That is by design: the model only admits a change in skill when the data demand one, and across this player's three Liga Portugal seasons they never have.
| Season | Minutes | Goals | Skill (with margin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 1,930 | 11 | +0.27 |
| 2025-26 | 2,726 | 20 | +0.28 |
| 2026-27 | 630 | 2 | +0.27 |
There is no telling whether he improved
Between 2025-26 and 2026-27 the estimate moved −0.018 — but the margin of error on that difference is ±0.105, 5.9 times larger. In other words: indistinguishable from zero. A big goal season is usually natural variation, not new skill.
Latest recorded appearances
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
- 2026-27 season
- 20 Sep20 Sep 2026Casa Piahome90' · startedno goals7.0
- 14 Sep14 Sep 2026Sp. Bragaaway90' · startedno goals5.9
- 7 Sep7 Sep 2026Aroucahome90' · startedno goals7.1
- 31 Aug31 Aug 2026Benficaaway90' · started17.7
- 22 Aug22 Aug 2026Rio Avehome90' · startedno goals7.0
- 16 Aug16 Aug 2026Nacionalaway90' · startedno goals6.4
- 7 Aug7 Aug 2026Famalicãohome90' · started18.3
- 2025-26 season
- 16 May16 May 2026Benficahome90' · startedno goals6.5
Match-by-match data (SofaScore). The rating is the provider's, not the model's — the model only uses goals, minutes and opponent.
Bayesian player model fitted on 30,858 individual appearances since 2023-24, with a 600-minute minimum to qualify. Club = current squad (2026-27); the season-by-season table shows where he played each season. The finishing and contribution data runs to 10 October 2026, with the 2026-27 season in progress: minutes, goals and recent appearances stop there until those models are refitted; contested possession, goalkeepers and defenders use the seasons their own files list.