Santa Clara·ForwardScoring skill
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season)
What the number means: if Gonçalo Paciência plays 90 minutes at a neutral venue against an average Liga defence, the model expects 0.27 more goals than if that place were taken by a replacement-level player — the kind of signing any club can make for free. Goals are capped (winsorized) before the estimate, so one four-goal afternoon is not read as permanent skill.
The model puts 90% probability on the true value lying between 0.12 and 0.46. Fewer minutes, wider interval.
Attacking contribution
Seasons 2023-24 to 2026-27
#7 of 40 published
The same structure as the finishing metric, but adding goals and assists together. It sees what the goals-only metric could not: who creates.
Few minutes pull the estimate toward replacement level and widen the interval.
Minutes, matches and goals from 2023-24 to 2026-27 · Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season)
Season by season
Goals go up and down; the skill estimate barely moves. That is by design: the model only admits a change in skill when the data demand one, and across this player's two Liga Portugal seasons they never have.
| Season | Minutes | Goals | Skill (with margin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 507 | 3 | +0.27 |
| 2026-27 | 608 | 5 | +0.28 |
Did he improve? Can't say
Between 2025-26 and 2026-27 the estimate moved +0.006 — but the margin of error on that difference is ±0.153, many times larger. In other words: indistinguishable from zero. A big goal season is usually natural variation, not new skill.
Latest recorded appearances
Data to 10 Oct 2026 (end of the 2026-27 season)
- 10 Oct10 Oct 2026Casa Piaaway90' · startedno goals6.8
- 20 Sep20 Sep 2026Sp. Bragahome71' · startedno goals6.0
- 13 Sep13 Sep 2026Aroucaaway73' · started17.2
- 6 Sep6 Sep 2026Rio Avehome76' · startedno goals6.0
- 29 Aug29 Aug 2026Alvercaaway71' · startedno goals6.3
- 23 Aug23 Aug 2026Famalicãohome74' · started17.5
- 15 Aug15 Aug 2026Ac. Viseuaway63' · started16.8
- 10 Aug10 Aug 2026Nacionalhome90' · started28.3
Match-by-match data (SofaScore). The rating is the provider's, not the model's — the model only uses goals, minutes and opponent.
Bayesian player model fitted on 30,858 individual appearances since 2023-24, with a 600-minute minimum to qualify. Club = current squad (2026-27); the season-by-season table shows where he played each season. The finishing and contribution data runs to 10 October 2026, the end of the 2026-27 season. Those models have not been refitted with 2027-28 matches yet, so minutes, goals and recent appearances stop there; contested possession, goalkeepers and defenders use the seasons their own files list.