Rio Ave

vs

Nacional

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

Rio AveHome

P: 7Pts: 4GD: -10

Form

L0-1@ Alverca

D3-3v Estrela

L0-4@ Santa Clara

W2-0@ Estoril

L0-4v Sporting

Model strength

Attack11th

Defence14th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 4.2xGF: 4.0xGA: 13.0Luck: -0.2

NacionalAway

P: 7Pts: 4GD: -8

Form

L0-4v Famalicão

L0-2@ Sporting

L1-3v Alverca

L2-3v Estrela

L0-1@ Vitória

Model strength

Attack13th

Defence16th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 7.5xGF: 8.0xGA: 12.9Luck: -3.5

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Rio Ave

Unavailable· 19% of squad value

• Cezary MisztaGoalkeeperBack problems5 M€
• Brandon AguileraCentral MidfieldCruciate ligament tear1.5 M€

Key players (SAR)

• Jalen BlesaForward0.30

Nacional

Unavailable· 7% of squad value

• UlissesCentre-Backunknown injury1 M€
• Ivanildo FernandesCentre-Backunknown injury200 k€

Key players (SAR)

No players with enough minutes.

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)