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Liga Portugal
Matchday 4 · played

Nacional – Estrela

The result and what the model gave before the match. The season forecast is on the Liga page.

Nacional
Final score: 2 to 3
Estrela
Sunday 30 August at 15:30

Before the match, the model gave these probabilities (published 28 August 2026):

Nacional win
47%
at home
Draw
27%
Estrela win
26%
Happened

Estrela won. Before the match, the model gave this outcome 26%.

What Nacional has leftWhat Estrela has left

Next fixtures

In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Fri 9 Oct · 18:45Moreirense – Gil VicenteMoreirense 32% · draw 30% · Gil Vicente 38%
  2. Fri 9 Oct · 20:15Sp. Braga – SportingSp. Braga 24% · draw 24% · Sporting 52%
  3. Sat 10 Oct · 15:30Casa Pia – Santa ClaraCasa Pia 28% · draw 30% · Santa Clara 41%
  4. Sat 10 Oct · 18:00Marítimo – PortoMarítimo 7.1% · draw 16% · Porto 77%
  5. Sat 10 Oct · 20:30Ac. Viseu – EstorilAc. Viseu 30% · draw 27% · Estoril 43%
  6. Sun 11 Oct · 15:30Rio Ave – NacionalRio Ave 44% · draw 26% · Nacional 30%
  7. Sun 11 Oct · 18:00Benfica – VitóriaBenfica 73% · draw 17% · Vitória 10%
  8. Sun 11 Oct · 20:30Arouca – EstrelaArouca 47% · draw 27% · Estrela 26%
  9. Mon 12 Oct · 20:15Famalicão – AlvercaFamalicão 46% · draw 28% · Alverca 27%
  10. Mon 19 Oct · 20:15 · postponed, matchday 2Sp. Braga – Gil VicenteSp. Braga 61% · draw 23% · Gil Vicente 16%
Probabilities from a bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target from the last four seasons of the Primeira Liga and Liga 2 (older games count for less), with each squad's value as the starting point; 50,000 simulated seasons. How the model works · Next fixtures: forecast of 25 September 2026