Moreirense

vs

Gil Vicente

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

MoreirenseHome

P: 7Pts: 8GD: -6

Form

D1-1@ Vitória

W3-1v Marítimo

L0-4v Benfica

W1-0@ Casa Pia

L1-2@ Porto

Model strength

Attack15th

Defence11th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 5.1xGF: 4.8xGA: 12.6Luck: +2.9

Gil VicenteAway

P: 6Pts: 8GD: 0

Form

D1-1v Marítimo

L1-3@ Benfica

L0-1v Ac. Viseu

D0-0@ Famalicão

W2-0v Casa Pia

Model strength

Attack10th

Defence8th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 10.1xGF: 7.8xGA: 5.5Luck: -2.1

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Moreirense

Unavailable

No absences on record.

Key players (SAR)

• Yan MaranhãoForward0.15

Gil Vicente

Unavailable· 5% of squad value

• Mohamed BambaDefensive Midfieldunknown injury1.5 M€

Key players (SAR)

• Héctor HernándezForward0.27
• Carlos EduardoForward0.11

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)