Marítimo vs Porto
MarítimoMatchday 8
Marítimo
7%
Home win
Draw
16%
Draw
Porto
77%
Away win
16%
77%
Most likely outcome: Porto (77%)
What is at stake
Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.
Win Marítimo
Marítimo
| Relegation | 18% | −13 pp |
Porto
| Title | 36% | −15 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 97% | −1.4 pp |
Draw
Marítimo
| Relegation | 26% | −4.8 pp |
Porto
| Title | 43% | −8.2 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 98% | −0.5 pp |
Win Porto
Marítimo
| Relegation | 33% | +2.2 pp |
Porto
| Title | 55% | +3.1 pp |
| Europe (top 3) | 99% | +0.2 pp |
Change against the current probability, in percentage points.
How they arrive
Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.
MarítimoHomeP: 7Pts: 8GD: -4
Form
D1-1@ Gil Vicente
L1-3@ Moreirense
L1-2@ Arouca
W1-0v Casa Pia
Model strength
Attack17th
Defence18th
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 7.8xGF: 6.8xGA: 9.3Luck: +0.2
PortoAwayP: 7Pts: 21GD: +15
Form
W3-1v Benfica
W4-1@ Casa Pia
W3-0@ Ac. Viseu
W2-1v Moreirense
W2-0v Arouca
Model strength
Attack3rd
Defence1st
rank in the league
Expected performance
xPts: 14.8xGF: 15.7xGA: 6.9Luck: +6.2
Squads
Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.
MarítimoUnavailable
No absences on record.
Key players (SAR)
No players with enough minutes.
PortoUnavailable· 15% of squad value
- Samu AghehowaCentre-ForwardCruciate ligament tear45 M€
- Oskar PietuszewskiLeft WingerMuscle injury25 M€
- Vasco SousaCentral MidfieldBroken fibula2 M€
Key players (SAR)
- Samu AghehowaForwardout0.44
- William GomesForward0.23
- Borja SainzForward0.16
- Oskar PietuszewskiForwardout0.13
SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)
Probabilities from a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, over 50k simulated seasons. How the model works · 2026-09-25