Famalicão

vs

Alverca

What is at stake

Both teams' title, Europe and relegation probabilities under each of the three results, against where they stand now.

Change against the current probability, in percentage points.

How they arrive

Recent form, model-estimated strength and expected points (xPts) from xG.

FamalicãoHome

P: 7Pts: 7GD: +2

Form

W4-0@ Nacional

D1-1v Sporting

D0-0v Gil Vicente

D2-2@ Estrela

L0-1@ Santa Clara

Model strength

Attack7th

Defence6th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 8.4xGF: 7.2xGA: 8.9Luck: -1.4

AlvercaAway

P: 7Pts: 8GD: -2

Form

W1-0v Rio Ave

L1-2v Sp. Braga

W3-1@ Nacional

L1-3@ Sporting

D1-1v Santa Clara

Model strength

Attack8th

Defence9th

rank in the league

Expected performance

xPts: 8.0xGF: 10.0xGA: 12.1Luck: 0.0

Squads

Known absentees and each side's highest skill-above-replacement (SAR) players. Absences as of 2026-08-10.

Famalicão

Unavailable

No absences on record.

Key players (SAR)

• Óscar ArandaForward0.17

Alverca

Unavailable

No absences on record.

Key players (SAR)

• ChiquinhoForward0.13
• FigueiredoForward0.13

SAR — Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)